Posted by Sean in Fantasy Advice on Sep 3rd 2010 and last modified on Sep 4th 2010. (Print This)
Fab 4? Gore begs to differ.
The Most Asked Fantasy Question Heading Into the 2010 Season: “After the Fab-4 are gone, who do I draft at the 5th, 6th or 7th spot?”
Drafting in the middle of round one is considered “The Canyon”. As draft orders we’re announced throughout fantasy nation, those that found themselves with a mid-round pick let out a snychronous cry of “SH*t!” But fear not: Just as lemonade can be made out of lemons, a fantasy championship can be built from these spots. Let me assure you – the talent available is far better upon further statistical review. Let’s take a look…
Fantasy Nation seems to have unanimously ordained “The Fab-4″ to this year’s royal cabinet: Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice are dominating the first four slots of nearly all drafts.
Who you chose next, really depends on how your league distributes points. Player value can only be accurately determined after a detailed analysis of your league’s scoring system and roster formation has occurred. The Brotherhood has preached over and over again: “Thou Shalt Draft According to Your Scoring Format!” This fundamental commandment carries even more weight when you find your self drafting from the Canyon. If your league rewards for receptions, starts 2 WR, 3WR, a Flex, 4 PT throwing scores, 6PT throwing scores… various yardage totals will all effect what player you should draft with your middle round pick.
RB CANDIDATES:
Frank Gore:
Frank Gore has been exiled from the royal chamber, but he leads the “canyon dwellers” with silly fantasy upside. Mike Singleterry is a smash-mouth style of coach. Gore was extremely successful last year despite the team’s efforts to implement a spread offense. After investing their two first round draft picks on offensive linemen, look for Gore to be the focal point. Anthony Dixon’s preseason performances along with the signing of Brian Westbrook, will both contribute to Gore being spelled from time to time. This is not a bad thing. Gore comes with injury concerns, so a slight drop in the quantity of his carries may help the quality. Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree should provide him with plenty of opportunities to score. His receiving ability allows him to retain value in various scoring formats. By season’s end, Gore could very well put up MJD-like numbers. We like him as your Canyon pick in Standard Scoring Formats, and 2 WR/PPR Formats.
Michael Turner:
Michael Turner will bounce back this season. He should return to form, but look for the Falcons to attempt to become more balanced in effort to keep their horse healthy. After a 377 carry 08, The Burner broke down in 09. Matt Ryan will be given more control of the offense as he matures. True Turner experienced some significant wear-and-tear as of late, but playing the majority of his career as a back-up has limited his career carries. 300 carries is expected. He’s 28 years old, but a young 28 given the usual work-load of a NFL back. He has 1,500 yard 15 TD potential. He loses value in PPR formats. We like him here in TD only leagues.
Steven Jackson:
Steven Jackson would be a top3 back if he played for anyone but the Rams. That being said, he plays for the Rams and is coming off of back surgery. He’s the team’s best option on both the ground and in the air, but his work load may once again lead to wear and tear. All reports indicate that his back surgery went well and has been considered “minor”, but back problems for a runner is scary. The team should improve a bit this season, but they we don’t expect them to put Jackson in too many opportunities to score. Although his yardage totals were more than impressive, his 4 visits to pay-dirt needs to be remedied. SJack is great, but there are too many red-flags this season for me to invest my No. 1 pick on him.
Draft Advice: Gore is the play in Standard, PPR/2WR, 4pt QB throwing formats. Turner in TD only leagues.
WR CANDIDATE
Andre Johnson:
He’s caught over 100 passes in three out of the past four years. He’s had back-to-back 1,500 yard seasons. He’s averaged over 97 yards per game over the past three years and has averaged 7 catches per game over the past two. QB Matt Schaub is rising in the ranks. With the return of TE Owen Daniels and the anticipated emergence of WR Jacoby Jones, Johnson could find himself with his best supporting cast yet. The run game was non existent in 09, but look for second year man RB Arian Foster to step it up and provide the offense with better balance. Johnson will once again cross the century mark in catches and should post double-digit scores. He’s the definitive No. 1. No contest!
Draft Advice: 100-plus receptions has AJ the pick in PPR/3WR formats. Starting 3 wide-outs will dilute the player pool incredibly. The RBBC will force solid talent into the further rounds allowing you to afford selecting stud WRs early.
QB CANDIDATES
Aaron Rodgers:
People comment that Rodgers is the next Peyton Manning. In terms of fantasy he’s already surpassed him. Rodgers surprisingly lead most leagues in fantasy scoring last season and we expect him to do the same in 2010. Jennings will finally leapfrog Driver as the WR1 and Jermichael Finley is expected to explode. He has Gates-like potential. With a youthful under class (James Jones and Jordy Nelson), the Pack appears on track to produce solid fantasy stats for years to come. Ryan Grant is a good, not great back. That’s just what you want for your fantasy QB. You want a runner that is good enough to keep defenses honest, but not one who’ll be the focal point.
In PPC and 6pt Throwing TD Leagues - Quarterbacks Must Be Considered.
Drew Brees:
The Brotherhood has Brees ranked atop this years quarterback class. With few key off-season moves, little has changed on the offensive side of the ball. New Orleans will continue to implement a pass-first approach. The only reasonable loss is Mike Bell, who was a runner and nothing more. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush are both better than average pass-catchers. Sean Payton’s hesitation to give Pierre the reigns in 09 hints to his concern around durability. How do you keep your backs fresh? Air-it-out, and that’s what we expect the Saints to do.
Draft Advice: 6pts for all touchdowns bumps QBs up considerably. If your league rewards equal value for throwing scores, or has a point per completion format – Quarterback is the call in the Canyon.
The running back position is so super-saturated with talent, that quality runners are falling further and further down the draft board than ever before. Watch, you’ll be surprised at the talented backs that will be available to you in the 3rd, 4th and 5throunds. Your first two rounds will set the stage for your entire draft.If you miss out on Gore, we recommend either going double wide-outs, or a quarterback/wide receiver combo depending on the format. If you go QB-WR, either of the Big Three will provide you with elite production at the position. If you chose to go WR-WR, wait on a quarterback until later in the draft, we would recommend doubling up on throwers, being the first to land a back-up to ensure quality production and insurance under-center.