Posted by Sean in Fantasy Advice on Sep 4th 2010 and last modified on Sep 6th 2010. (Print This)
Mike Williams Looks to Compete for Rookie of the Year Honors.
It has been drilled into fantasy culture: “don’t draft rookie receivers!”. The virgin seasons of Percy Harvin, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Mike Wallace, Austin Collie and Mike Thomas have us questioning what has been thought to be fantasy law. As the NFL turns more to the air, more and more teams are lining up in 3 WR sets. Rookies are hitting the field earlier and more often than ever.The so called “3 year theory” has come into question. That being said, It is always important to remember: all rookie wide-outs come with risk. Pay attention to camp battles and preseason performances to see who is impressing their way into the starting lineup. Although I don’t agree with the “3 year theory”, rookie receivers often experience growing pains in their first year as professionals. Only a handful of pass catchers have made a virgin season splash. Could anyone from the ’10 class be one of them?
Overall this is an extremely weak class. As of right now, Dez Bryant Mike Williams and Dexter McCluster appear to be the only draft-worthy targets.
1) Dez Bryant: Dallas Cowboys, College: Oklahoma State, Height: 6’2″ , 220 lbs.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Atop this years rookie class sits Dez Bryant. Bryant comes with some character concerns and has been criticized for lacking elite speed, but his hands are as sure as any. As he slid down the draft board, Jerry Jones wasted no time trading up to grab their man. Bryant appeared disgruntled after falling so far. This bodes well for production as he will be striving to prove himself. Rookie pass-catchers are often better off being selected by a team that already has a headliner at the position. Miles Austin and Jason Witten will command enough attention to allow Bryant to ease his way into the pro game. Roy Williams will not compete with Bryant’s talent. The granting of Michael Irvin’s number 88 shows what type of high hopes the organization has for the youngster. That is a big jersey to fill. A strong rookie season is expected.
Strengths: Solid build, strong frame. Good combination of size and body control. Makes good use of his stature. Tough to jam at the line of scrimmage. Strong jumping ability. Red-Zone presence, can use the corners. Makes his quarterback look good by adjusting to poorly thrown balls. Punt return ability. He’s the most complete wide-out this draft had to offer.
Weaknesses: Lacks premiere deep speed. Needs to work on his route running: currently relying on athletic ability over precision. 2009 absence of playing time. Played in spread offense.
NFL comparisons: Brandon Marshall, Chad Ochocinco.
2) Mike Williams: Tampa Bay Bucs, College: Syracuse, Ht: 6’2″, Wt: 205lbs.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Arrelious Benn was drafted ahead of him, but Williams will out-produce his fellow rook in their virgin seasons. Tampa is a team in transition. Growing pains are expected, but someone has to catch the ball for the Bucs. Williams could supply some sneaky stats as an under-the-radar WR3. He’s made the most of his preseason action and is slated to start the season as Tampa’s No. 1. Like many other wide-outs, he’s had a history of character concerns. He missed his 08 season at Syracuse due to academic ineligibility and quit the team a year later due to continued off-the field struggles. Dez received all of the early hype, but Mike Williams will look to compete for Rookie of the Year honors for WRs.
Dexter McCluster Will Find A Way To Get On The Field.
3) Dexter McCluster: Kansas City Chiefs, College: Ole Miss, Ht: 5’8″ Wt: 165lbs.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: The Chiefs drafted McCluster to become their utility man. He split duties at Ole Miss, playing both RB and WR. Todd Haley and Charlie Weiss will put him in a position to produce. Slowly but surely, the Chiefs appear to be taking the turn. With Dwayne Bowe showing up in shape, and the continued growth of Matt Cassel, the aerial attack should be better. We see McCluster functioning more as a receiver than a back for the Chiefs already have a two-headed monster in Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. His versatility will get him on the field with special teams. We may also see him at the helm of KC’s wildcat formation.
4) Jordan Shipley: Bengals, College: Texas, Ht: 5’11″ , Wt: 190
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Shipley was under-rated heading into the draft and was somewhat written off by NFL Gms. Coach Marvin Lewis has commented that the offense will find away to put Shipley on the field despite his place inline for targets. He was Colt McCoy’s best pass-catcher and has the fundamental skills and intelligence to make at the pro level. Playing under such accomplished vets will allow Shipley time to grow. He’s a good character kid and should not be influenced be his mentor’s personality flaws. His 2010 contributions will be spotty, but T.O. and Ocho are getting old. Owens may be a one year deal and Ocho appears to be more focused on life after football these days. The release of Antonio Bryant opens the door for Shipley to step into the WR3 spot.
5) Brandon LaFell: Carolina Panthers, College: LSU, Ht: 6’3″, Wt: 209 lbs.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: LaFell initially declared for the 2009 NFL Draft, but pulled out to return for his senior season at LSU. He entered the 09 season with the potential to be the best receiver the college game had to offer, but his senior year stats would take a hit. LSU’s offense struggled all season behind an inexperienced quarterback. LaFell was unable to eclipse his junior year production although he had his best season in terms of touchdowns (11). Had he entered the draft last year, he most likely would have been a first rounder. A year later, his stay atop the wide-receiver board came into question after a season of inconsistent quarterback play and some uncharacteristic drops. He does have 4 years experience in a highly regarded college conference. The Panthers have been waiting for Dwayne Jarrett to step up. It’s safe to slap the bust tag on him. The offense will continue to revolve around the ground game, but Matt Moore is in desperate need of another aerial option. With underutilized TEs and a double covered WR1 – There is a lot of pressure for LaFell to step up.
NFL Comparison: Dwayne Bowe
6) Golden Tate: Seattle Seahawks, College: Notre Dame, Height: 5’11″, 195 lbs.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Housh is aging and has struggled since becoming a Seahawk. Detroit trading to get Nate Burleson opens up plenty of targets to go around. Tate could impress in his virgin season, but he’s struggled thus far “picking up the offense”. That phrase never bodes well for fantasy production. Believe it or not, you do have to have some intelligence to play football. Coming from Notre Dame, you’d think Charlie Weiss would have had him better prepared. He’s shown glimpses in camp, but has been an overall preseason disappointment. He’s sliding down the depth chart.
NFL Comparisons:Steve Smith, Hines Ward.
7) Eric Decker: Denver Broncos, College: Minnesota, Ht: 6’3″ Wt: 215 lbs
2010 Fantasy Outlook: A foot injury kept allowed him only eight games in his senior year, and may have hurt his draft stock a bit, but he has the all around talent to make it in the pros. People are already saying that he may be the Bronco’s next Ed McCaffery. That may be getting a little carried away, but there is promise. We like Decker’s future, but his playing time as a rook may be stiffled as he looks to be 4th in line for starting time. Fellow rookie Demaryius Thomas continues to struggle with a foot injury allowing Decker more preseason snaps. He’s done well with his face time. Gaffney and Royal will hold down the staring spots, but there’s enough room for one more. Decker may be that guy.
8) Demaryius Thomas: Denver Broncos, College: Georgia Tech, Height: 6’3″, 230 lbs.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Despite being trapped in a run dominated Tech offense and a below average quarterback, Thomas was able to piece together a decent highlight reel in his three years as a yellow-jacket.
Good luck jamming him at the line. He has decent speed to combine with one of the more dominant frames this draft has to offer. Aggressively attacks the ball at it’s peak. Is a hands catcher. Is rarely outworked by opposing corners. Uses his size effectively in blocking. Tech’s run-first approach has allowed him to become potentially the best blocking wide-out in this class. Does not hesitate to go over the middle. Is tough to take down and has strong yards after contact ability.
His stature works against him in his fluidness. Needs to work on cleaning up his breaks. Is not the fastest off the line. Speed more apparent on deeper routes. Struggles to get to full speed in short game. He is still raw and needs polishing. Needs to add a couple of branches to his route tree and work on his experience in reading coverages. GT was such a run heavy team that opposing defenses rarely structured their defense around stopping Thomas.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: The foundation and fundamentals are present. He’s raw, but has displayed strong work ethic and has been a solid locker-room presence. His foot injury continues to hamper his ability to practice. He’s yet to see a snap in preseason play. Most recent reports indicate that he did not re-fracture anything, but his fantasy forecast is starting to look ugly for this season. Will most likely be a developing project in his rookie year.
NFL Comparisons: Brandon Marshall, Calvin Johnson.
9) Arrelious Benn: Tampa Bay Bucs, College: Illinois, Ht: 6’2″ , Wt: 220 lbs.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Benn was selected way ahead of Williams, yet he finds himself behind his fellow rook on the depth chart. Tampa is young at WR and QB. The foundation looks to be in place, but fantasy stats may struggle while the group works out it’s immaturity. Benn should see playing time this season, but there has been little buzz surrounding his efforts in camp.
He’s shown glimpses in his career at Illinois, but was victim of a run-first offensive approach and was deprived of a true throwing quarterback. Benn has the prototypical size of a wide-out, but his height and weight appear to be his most impressive stats as the Illini offense failed to take advantage of the talented wide-out’s skill.
10) Victor Cruz: New York Giants, College: UMASS
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Cruz has dominated preseason play and has been the talk of New York. An unknown coming out of UMASS, Cruz exploded onto the scene with a 3 TD performance vs. the Giants. He proved to be no fluke and has performed way above expectation level. Mario Manningham continues to hold down WR3 duties for the G-Men, but Cruz has done everything in his power to beat out Sinorice Moss for the 4 spot. He looks very comfortable on the field and makes it look easy. We understand that it’s the preseason…. That being said, the kid looks good! It’s a reach that he’ll see the field, but if he does, expect him to make the most of his opportunity.
Others to put on your watch list:
Damian Williams: Tennessee Titans, College: USC, Ht: 6’1″, Wt: 190 lbs
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Kenny Britt continues to show his immaturity. Jeff Fisher is a no-nonsense style of coach. After being held out of practicing with the team for showing up out of shape, Britt once again is in the headlines for a motor vehicle violation. In football there is such thing as negative press. The Titans will remain a run-first offense, but the two starting roles appear up for grabs. Britt will still be the headliner, but the WR2 battle will be faught out between Nate Washington, Justin Gage and Damian Williams. Washington played better as a WR3 as a Steeler and does not possess true starter skills. Gage will most likely back up Britt at the 1 spot. Williams could see the field earlier than expected.
Williams, an Arkansas boy, committed to be a Razorback out of high school, but decided to transfer to USC after Arkansas appeared that they would be a run-first offense behind running back Darren McFadden. This draft is full of WR prospects who’s ceilings were lowered by being trapped in run-first offenses and inadequate quarterback play. Williams refused to let this happen to him. He was forced to sit out the 2007 season due to transfer policies, but his relocation paid off as Hollywood University provided the talented wide-out with the opportunity to play under the national spotlight. You have to wonder what he could have done if Mark Sanchez had opted to return to the Trojans. Despite losing his star quarterback, Williams was able to make the most of his junior season with a true freshman under-center. He graduated from USC but had one more year of football eligibility. He’s chosen to forgo his senior season to enter the 2010 NFL draft and was drafted by the Titans.
Taylor Price: New England Patriots, College: Rice, Ht: 6’1″, Wt: 205 lbs
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Playing in the MAC hurt his stock, but don’t be fooled – the MAC has produced some legitimate NFL stars … one being Mr. Randy Moss. Speaking of Moss, Rice may be his long-term replacement. The future Hall of Famer is entering a contract year and most likely won’t be signed next season. Price may be the eventual successor, but in his rookie season he’ll look to compete with veteran Torry Holt and second-year man Brandon Tate for playing time.
Emmanuel Sanders: Steelers, College: , Ht:5’11″ , Wt: 182 lbs
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Santonio Holmes‘ departure has gone under the radar. His absence will be felt more than people think. Mike Wallace is on everyone’s sleeper list. We expect him to step up and provide the team with a legit playmaker, but he’s got a ways to go before reaching Holmes-status. Speaking of Wallace, he produced solid stats as a rook in 09. The WR3 spot has produced fairly decent stats in Pitt. Prior to Wallace it was Nate Washington, and before that Randel El. Traditionally thought of as a grind-it-out offense, the Steelers produce more aerial stats than one would expect. Big Ben knows how to utilize deep speed and Sanders has plenty of it. While Wallace looks to step into the Santonio role, Sanders looks to step into the Wallace Role. He’ll surprise.
Mardy Gilyard: St. Louis Rams, College: Cincinnati, Ht: 6′, Wt: 179 lbs.
2010 Fantasy Outlook: Gilyard joins an under-achieving/ un-proven WR corps in St. Louis. Donnie Avery’s injury will open up opportunities. Gilyard should sneak sometime on special teams as he waits for his turn to contribute on offense.