Posted by Paul in Fantasy Advice,Free Draft Kit,Quarterbacks on Jul 26th 2010 (Print This)
The Future of the Position.
We’re kicking off our FREE 2010 Draft Kit with the most important position in football and arguably all of sports. Quarterback’s are the most important players on the football field and are far and away the most crucial to a teams overall success. (Disclaimer: I am the QB guru here, so I am a little biased on the position)The NFL has evolved into a pass first league, as the league has changed the rules that cater to the offense. More teams are spreading the field and throwing at least as much or more than they ever have before. This trend will continue to grow, and is the reason why front office personnel around the league will do almost anything to secure a top signal caller. Teams know that without a strong quarterback there’s a good chance you can kiss your playoff hopes goodbye.
The same is true in fantasy football. Without a top echelon quarterback leading your team, there is a decent chance you’ll miss the playoffs. If you go back and look at your leagues winners, I guarantee that nine out of ten times the team that won probably had a top five QB. This is a fact, yet fantasy owners continue to ignore this trend. Instead they’ll invest their late first or early second round picks on running backs or wide receivers that may or may not produce. It’s the main reason why I always recommend drafting an elite quarterback over other positions that carry greater risk. It’s not the sexy pick but it’s the safe one. Any good fantasy GM will tell you, it always pays to minimize risk. Investing an early draft pick on a top quarterback is a good way to minimize risk and start the process of building a contender. I’ve been preaching this for years. Quarterbacks are the most valuable commodity in fantasy football. It’s a heck of a lot easier to project what a quarterback’s ceiling is than any other position.
Most good fantasy GM’s will have a solid plan come draft day. They’ll know where they’re picking and also what players will likely be available at those spots in the draft. More often than not they’ll target their signal callers in the mid rounds and hope to land a consistent weekly option. It’s a good plan considering how deep the quarterback pool is this year. Last year ten quarterbacks threw for over 4,000 yards and twelve managed to toss 26 or more touchdowns. That list doesn’t include potential breakout candidates Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan or Kevin Kolb. I believe all three will post solid statistical seasons and be adequate weekly options at the position.
Here is the question that can be the difference in winning a title or missing the playoffs; Who do you want leading your team? After Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Ray Rice, how can you not consider taking Brees, Rodgers or even Peyton? They’re the cream of the crop for quarterbacks this season and I expect all three to compete for the top scoring spot and MVP honors. I would consider Frank Gore or Andre Johnson, here but that’s about it. There is just way to much uncertainty surrounding everyone else. Most teams use multiple running backs taking significant value away from the position. Running-back has become so saturated that you can find solid weekly options in the third, fourth or fifth rounds. Instead of taking a shot in the dark in the mid first or early second round, build your team around Brees, Rodgers or Peyton. You won’t be sorry.
If you miss out on one of the top three elite options or decide to go in a different direction, you’ll still be able to land a very good quarterback. Schaub, Romo, Brady, Favre and Rivers are all proven players who are poised for solid years. Schaub and Romo have the chance to breakout into elite status, and Brady and Favre are safe and consistent options. Rivers could see a slight drop in production with the Vincent Jackson saga still on going in San Diego, but he is a proven productive player. I would be happy if I landed any of these guys and would feel very confident leading my team. Fantasy football is made much easier when you don’t have to worry about your quarterback on weekly basis. Trust me on this one.
However, even if I draft one of the top eight quarterbacks mentioned, I’ll still going to target another QB ranked in the top twelve. As deep as it is at the position this year, the quarterbacks are still the most valuable commodity in fantasy. A quarterback taken in the eighth round will often outscore most of the running backs and wide outs selected in the top four rounds. You just need to identify which player is going to breakout. Lucky for you, I’ve become very good at finding these players. I’ll be posting my player write-ups on Wednesday to help you identify such players.
Our Sleeper Pick At QB In 2009
A good example of one of these players from last year is Matt Schaub. In a 12 team league, I drafted Schaub in the 7th round. I also drafted Aaron Rodgers in the 3rd. Before my trade deadline I was able to trade Rodgers to a quarterback hungry team for Jamaal Charles and Greg Jennings. The trade helped propel my team to a title.
The strategy is a little unorthodox but it works. Sooner rather than later other fantasy GM’s will catch on to this strategy. It’s too simple of a philosophy not to. Wouldn’t you rather draft two quarterbacks ranked in the top 10 over a back or receiver who’s ranked in the mid to late 20’s? Who wouldn’t? Building a contender is all about stockpiling talent regardless of position. If I end up with three quarterbacks who produce on a weekly basis, I’ll be better off in the end for it. Pounce on the GM’s that fail to address the quarterback position until the top ten or twelve are off the board.
If you happen to be one of these GM’s, and you rest your teams hopes on someone ranked outside the top 10. I strongly recommend taking two rather quickly. If I draft Joe Flacco, I’m going to select Eli Manning, Matt Ryan, Kevin Kolb or Jay Cutler with my next pick to pair with him. Having two of them will greatly improve your odds of finding a consistent weekly option. I’m not resting my teams title hopes on the arms of Palmer, McNabb or Chad Henne. I believe they’ll produce, but not on a consistent enough basis to win you a title.
Fantasy football is quickly becoming an arms race. The owners who stay ahead of the curve and stockpile the most will be in a better position than the ones who don’t. Trust me.
If you have any questions regarding your draft day strategy or any other fantasy related questions, take advantage of our Ask A Question feature. We know that every league is different and every decision is an important one. We are here to help you win a title. It’s what we do, and we love doing it.
3 Responses to “Draft Day Philosophy / Quarterbacks”
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I am still advocating a more RB and WR focused approach and taking a QB later in the draft and hoping to play matchups. I do like Kolb, Flacco, and Ryan as value picks later in drafts much as you list above.
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