Posted by Sean in Fantasy Advice on Jan 8th 2010 and last modified on Jan 11th 2010. (Print This)
Poised for the Playoffs: Wishes for post-season success Grant-ed.
The key to post-season fantasy success is the ability to properly forecast which teams will go on, and which will be one and done. You need to approach the NFL fantasy playoffs just like you would approach the NCAA Final Four Tournament. Prior to making player evaluations, you need to philosophize and fill out a bracket. After doing so, only then can you properly rank your players.
You need to get a solid balance of one/two seeds, and first week players in order to make it to the next round. Sure Indy, New Orleans, Minny and San Diego are all stacked with talent, but you will not have access to them until week 2. You’ll win your league if you are able to foresee the surprise team and then draft players from that squad. GMs who drafted Arizona Cardinals last year increased their chances of winning.
Here is a brief break down and example bracket of how I would approach this post-season:
NFC Week 1: Green Bay over Arizona / Dallas over Philly
Week 2: Green Bay over New Orleans / Dallas over Minny
Week 3: Dallas over Green Bay
AFC Week 1: New England over Baltimore / Cincy over NYJ
Week 2: Indy over Cincy / San Diego over New England
Week 3: Indy over San Diego
Super Bowl: Dallas over Indy
The best possible picks are from the teams that play the most games. Those teams that play from week 1 all the way through to the Superbowl provide you with the most opportunity for points. In the case of this bracket – Dallas is the only team that fits this criteria. If things go as this bracket predicts, Cowboy players will play one more game than any other team. According to this bracket, this is how many games each team will play:
Dallas 4 , Indy 3, Green Bay 3, San Diego 2, New England 2, Cincy 2, New Orleans 1, Minny 1, Philly 1, Baltimore 1, Arizona, NYJ 1
More games played = more fantasy points. More fantasy points = Post-Season Champion. Based upon your bracket and games played you can now formulate your own positional ranks. Here is a Top 10 Rank for the major skill positions bases on our lay out:
QB: 1) Peyton Manning, 2) Tony Romo, 3) Aaron Rodgers, 4) Phil Rivers, 5) Tom Brady, 6) Drew Brees, 7) Brett Favre, 8) Carson Palmer, 9) Donovan McNabb, 10) Kurt Warner
RB: 1) Ryan Grant, 2) Joseph Addai, 3) LaDainian Tomlinson, 4) Adrian Peterson, 5) Marion Barber, 6) Cedric Benson, 7) Felix Jones, 8) Pierre Thomas, 9) Ray Rice, 10A) Tommy Jones, 10B) Fred Taylor
WR: 1) Miles Austin, 2) Reggie Wayne, 3) Vincent Jackson, 4) Donald Driver, 5) Randy Moss, 6) Greg Jennings, 7) Sidney Rice, 8) Marques Colston, 9) Julian Edelman 10A) Larry Fitz, 10B) Ochocinco (Revis Effect in Week 1)
TE: 1) Dallas Clark, 2) Antonio Gates, 3) Jason Witten, 4) Jerimichael Finley, 5) Brent Celek, 6)Vinsanthe Shianco, 7) J.P. Foschi , 8) Todd Heap , 9) Mike Thomas, 10) Jeremy Shockey
Going all in on one team is a serious gamble. If that team bows out early, so do you. Attempt to acquire the majority of your squad from the four teams you believe will make the NFC and AFC Championships. Drafting from your “one and done” teams could be dangerous, but the upside for some of these players allows them to retain value. Adrian Peterson is the best back remaining, but we’re expecting the Vikings to bow out early. Does that mean you don’t draft him if he’s available at your spot? Not necessarily. He is too good of a player to simply hand over to someone else. Minny could do some damage, but according to these brackets, we don’t think so. Get a feel for owner’s pre-draft expectations and see who they are targeting. If AP looks in high demand, you can draft him and flip him in a package deal for players that better correlate with how you think the playoffs will unfold. Example: You have Ryan Grant atop your playoff runningback board. He’s not the obvious pick, he’s not the sexy pick, but you have solid expectations for Green Bay this post-season and see him producing some sneaky stats. Let’s say you end up with AP and Ochocinco on your team. You could flip AP and “85″ for say, Grant and Miles Austin. It looks like a fair deal, maybe the consensus will be that the other owner got the best of the trade, but according to how you believe things will pan out – you just landed your #1 RB and #1WR in the same deal. Ocho is a big name, but he’ll be facing Darrelle Revis in coverage in week one. We expect Cincy to win that game. He should play well in week two vs. the Chargers, but we have the Bengals losing that game. If things go according to our brackets, you just traded 3 games of production for 8 – a steal in my eyes.
Some players who could make a BIG impact for a smaller price:
Julian Edelman: Will do his best Wes Welker impersonation. With the Slot Machine out of commission, Edlman should be a reception monster. He’s studied Welker throughout the season and has played well in spot duty. Brady has expressed confidence in the converted quarterback.
Cedric Benson: Hip-flexor injury has made fantasy owners forget how dominant he really was this season. He’s one of the only 30 carry backs left in the game.
Razor Sharp.
Felix Jones: If our Dallas prediction is right, Jones could be a sneaky runningback play this post-season. His injury tag will make owners weary, but his frequent visits to the infirmary have made owners forget how truly electric he is. He looks to be at his healthiest.
Fred Taylor: Taylor scored three times in the last two weeks. Maroney’s ball security issues may allow him to steal the goal-line looks, but Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk will continue to muddle the RB situation in New England.
Players to Avoid: Jet, Zona and Philly players.