Posted by Bill in Fantasy Advice on Jan 29th 2010 and last modified on Feb 7th 2010. (Print This)
Can Bradford Keep His Number One QB Rank?
If you havent noticed we have switched gears from fantasy football and have moved on to our second season and our other passion. The NFL draft. The draft symbolizes renewal for all 32 teams and it is the one day of the year that every football fan can walk away feeling like a winner. For all of our readers that are new to the Draft we unleash our Fantasy Football Brothers’ primer to get you ready for the 2010 draft. Every few weeks leading up to the draft we will update these profiles, adding some new players and possibly dropping players who’s value has fallen. We will continue to evaluate all of the draft prospects, while keeping an eye on the potential play-makers. We will find the players who will have an immediate impact on fantasy football in 2010. We will look for the players who could impact fantasy football in a year or two. We will take a look at some of the bigger potential defensive prospects in the coming weeks as well. We have been writing this as the week has gone along, and have updated any players on this list that are playing in the Senior Bowl which is being held this Saturday. This is not a rank, but a scouting report that we are developing as we head to the draft.
The QB position is deep this year and is starting to appear to have even more depth than what was our initial impression. We are sad to note that our favorite QB this year Jake Locker opted to return to school for a senior year. Our consensus number one ranked QB right now (Bradford)enters the ranks with some chinks in his armor. There are more than a few questions out there about all of the quarter-backs. Have we seen enough of Bradford? Is Jimmy Clausen a product of the Notre Dame offense? Can Colt McCoy show enough this off-season to get drafted high in the second round? Is Dan LeFevour a system quarterback? Are Tim Tebow’s flaws fatal? All the while West Virginia’s Jarrett Brown has been a revelation this week during Senior Bowl practices and has been by far the best QB participating this week. His stock will begin to sky rocket up if he plays well in the actual game.
At RB it is C.J. Spiller hands down first, but there are two potential franchise RBs that could go in the first round. The running back by committee is here to stay(Sigh), at least for another season (I know I’m kidding myself)but the success of recent high draft picks has led to more teams valuing the RBs earlier in drafts the last few years. Jonathan Dwyer needs to prove that he has hands. Jahvid Best needs to show scouts some confidence around his health. Ryan Mathews needs to show that he will be a steal for an NFL team and not just a big bully beating up on the WAC.
This year the Wide Receivers have Dez Bryant and then everyone else. All of the receivers that are on this list value will inevitably fluctuate up and down as the off-season workouts roll on. This position is the most likely place for someone to go from a projected fourth rounder all the way up to the first round. Forty yard dash times at the combine have the biggest effect on players movement. Just ask Darrious Heywood-Bey. Teams have gotten smarter over the years in their evaluation of the receivers. Not all scouts are suckers for size, nor are they slaves to straight line speed. Just a random thought but can you tell me why teams judge prospect’s future potential by a random distance run of say 40 yards? Which by the way has zero football relevance what so ever. Though teams are throwing more than ever most are throwing more out of spread sets. Spread formations means there is a greater need for better receivers. Now not only are WR1′s and WR2′s becoming fantasy relevant but even some WR3′s can have value in deeper leagues.
Both Tight-Ends are harder to project to the NFL this year since both are coming with outside factors. Aaron Hernandez was hands down the best TE in college football this year. He was an effective TE that always seemed to be wide open mostly due to the Florida spread option offense. Meanwhile Jermaine Gresham also came out of a spread attack and hasn’t played in a game in over a year. Tight-End is a down position this year and Hernandez was wise to take advantage.
QuarterBacks
Sam Bradford-Oklahoma Bradford was the consensus number one quarterback entering the 2009 draft but opted to return for his junior season to gain more experience. 2009 was a disaster for Bradford, attempting only 69 passes he suffered two shoulder injuries with the second one ending his season. He started the opening game and injured his throwing shoulder forcing him out of action for three games. He returned against Baylor throwing for 389 yards and a score. The following week against Texas he re-injured his shoulder and under went season ending shoulder surgery. Bradford has the size 6’4″ 230 lbs. and mobility that you look for in a franchise quarterback. Possesses a plus arm with great accuracy, he can make all the necessary throws. Gets rid of the ball quickly and holds the ball up high when setting up to throw. The two biggest knocks on his game are his durability and experience. He basically played the position for two years and took a lot of snaps from shotgun. Needs to participate in some post season draft activities to garner a high first round grade. He is our number one rated QB as of this writing.
Clausen's Value Goes Up Having Played Under Center
Jimmy Clausen-Notre Dame Clausen arrived at Notre Dame with much fanfare and was expected to lead the Irish back to national prominence. Started six games his freshman year and was the starter the last two years before declaring for the draft. Clausen has a ton of experience in a pro-style offense with most of his snaps coming from under center. He is big 6’3″ 235 lbs. and can move around in the pocket but he is not a threat to run. He and Bradford will be the most scrutinized since they are the consensus two best quarter backs. Has a good arm and shows a good touch. He benefited greatly from the play of Golden Tate, which can only conjure up memories of another Notre Dame product Brady Quinn. Don’t get me wrong Clausen will be a better quarterback than Quinn and possesses a much better arm. We still have our doubts here about him and need to see a lot more.
Colt McCoy-Texas McCoy had a storied career at Texas that ended abruptly in his first drive during the National Championship game. He leaves Texas holding a ton of passing records. Has been likened to Drew Brees which is a fair comparison as far as styles go but don’t expect his production. Not big 6’2″ 210 lbs. but has above average mobility and shows great touch on his passes. Lacks ideal arm strength but the guy has thrown the ball a ton and has some of those intangibles you look for in an NFL quarterback. Leadership, mental and physically tough and he is a winner. Mechanics need some minor refinement.
Dan LeFevour-Central Michigan LeFevour follows a long list of M.A.C. signal callers that have come to the big league in the past ten year. Ben Rothlisberger,Chad Penington,Byron Leftwich and Charlie Batch have all been servicable at worst in the NFL. LeFevour has decent size almost 6’3″ 225 has a great makeup and shows great accuracy. His arm is decent but we need to see some more of his throws since the biggest knock on him will be that he spent the majority of time running the spread. (Senior Bowl Update: Had Above Average Game)
Tim Tebow-Florida Tebow is a fiery vocal leader and was one of the most dominant players to ever play college football and he was able to get the job done with his legs and arm. He arrived in Florida with the most hype ever for a freshman and he never looked back his storybook career was just that in which he won two national titles and a Heisman. Tebow enters the draft this year and has been the subject of much debate for two solid years. There are a ton of knocks on his game. He virtually played his entire career in a spread option offense, having almost never played directly under center. His footwork is atrocious because of this. His arm is not lacking for strength, he can unload the ball deep when necessary and can throw the deep out. The questions are. How accurate is he? Since most of his throws were always to wide open receivers and on some of the shorter throws the ball fluttered. Can he squeeze the ball in to tight places? His delivery and throwing motion are way too long and he drops his shoulder on a lot of his throws and the ball comes out at a 3/4 arm slot. Despite all of the concerns he still brings a ton of talent to the pro game. He is smart,tough, and very hard working. He will need some time to develop but he has the types of intangibles that he could re-invent himself as a passer. (Senior Bowl Update: Has shown improvement in his mechanics every Senior Bowl practice this week. Looked Terrible In Game )
Running Backs
CJ Spiller-Clemson 5′11″ 195 Spiller is a home run threat every time he touches the ball. Whether he is running the ball, catching a swing pass out of the backfield or returning kicks he has game breaker written all over him. Though he is a little on small size and does seem to get dinged up more than you would want or like to have in a potential high draft pick. Spiller will likely be the first back taken come the NFL draft in April. He lacks the size right now to be on the field every down. Will make an immediate impact on what ever team drafts hims. Worst case scenario for his rookie year would likely be returning kicks and getting 10 touches a game, but with all his talent it will be hard to keep him off the field. Especially since what ever team is drafting him will need help now at running back rather than later. Has impressive lateral speed, can bounce to the outside, has great wiggle and can make defenders miss.
Jonathan Dwyer-Georgia Tech 6′1″ 235 Dwyer was an underrated back outside of the ACC. He has the size, speed and power to be an every down back. The biggest knock on Dwyer will likely be about his hands since he played in a run first option attack and recorded only 15 receptions in his three year career. Strong between the tackles, can move piles, stays low. Quick not fast. Great downhill runner. Can run through arm tackles. Will initiate contact and grind out extra yards. Has a little wiggle. Shows patience when waiting for play to develop. Has great vision.
Matthews Is The Best Back You Have Never Seen
Ryan Mathews-Fresno St. 5′11″ 220 Matthews will be the most interesting candidate after playing in a relatively small W.A.C. conference. Matthews dominated the competition rushing for over 100 yards in every game except one in which he left with an injury that also forced him to miss the next game as well. He has the most potential to take the biggest leap up the draft board. (Read: Sleeper)Not blessed with blazing speed, is quicker than fast. Tough inside runner and can turn the corner. Stays low and squares his shoulders at the line of scrimmage. Shows above average vision, and has uncanny knack for finding a crease in opposing defenses. Looks smooth. Hits the hole hard. Needs to show he can be a reliable pass catcher. Decent pass-protection and blitz pick up.
Jahvid Best-California 5′10″ 195 Best was one of the best before suffering a very scary neck injury when he had his legs cut out from under him resulting on him landing on his neck. He proceeded to miss the rest of the season including the Bear’s bowl game. Jahvid Best by all reports has made progress on the injury front and will need to show the NFL brass that he is ready by the time the combine rolls around. Blessed with blazing speed, he is a poor man’s C.J. Spiller and the comparison is more a testament to Spiller’s unique game breaking ability than a knock on Jahvid. Like Spiller, Best is a threat from anywhere on the field. Has great lateral quickness, good hands. Misses the hole sometimes, and relies on his speed a little too much. Needs to put some bulk to his frame. Durability is a legitimate concern. Has shown progress as a runner in each season. Will need to improve on blitz pick up. His value will increase if he returns kicks.
LeGarrette Blount-Oregon Blount entered the 2009 season with high expectations and a ton of hype after his junior year where he scored 17 touchdowns and rushed for over 1,000 yards. He was suspended during the off-season for not meeting team expectations. He was reinstated later during spring practice.Started the opening game which was a loss(8 carries -5 yards) to Boise State. He then proceeded to sucker punch an opposing player after the game and was then suspended again. Blount was re-instated once again in November but saw only limited action playing in the last game and the bowl game accumulating just 14 total carries for 87 yards and two scores. Blount does have a troubled past but if he can show NFL executives that he can grow up he will become a steal for the team that drafts him. Possesses the size and speed 6′ 249 lbs. to do some damage in the NFL. Above average inside runner and has the strength to run through arm tackles and move the pile. Could be a little quicker especially when trying to get to the outside. He needs to impress in the off-season and show up to the combine in shape, something that has also been an issue for him in the past. Needs to run with more confidence, get downhill quicker. Needs to stay low. (Senior Bowl Update: Showed up in decent shape, hands need some work, showed improvement as the week went on. Looked Decent During Game Scoring A Touchdown, Showed Power On Runs)
Dexter McCluster-Ole Miss. McCluster is the smallest of the running back prospects. At 5’7″ 165 lbs. he is down right smurflike and will need to put on some weight and bulk up. His greatest asset is his lightning fast speed, coupled that with his great hands (130 Career Receptions) and that will make him a dual threat. His size is by far our biggest concern, His small stature has led to injuries and durability issues. Will never be asked to run inside, or be asked to carry the ball more than a few times a game. McCluster can have an immediate impact as a third down back catching passes out of the backfield using swings and screens all the while hiding behind his offensive line. Great wiggle,shifty,decent vision. (Senior Bowl Update: Was the star of Tuesday practice showing off his great hands and has greatly increased his draft value this week/Could Not Get Open Or In Space During Game,Lost A Fumble )
Toby Gerhart-Stanford Gerhart is coming off an impressive senior campaign where he was the Heisman runner up and led the nation in rushing yards and touchdowns. Gerhart is big 6’1″ 235 lbs. and a very strong runner. Hits the hole with authority and shows patience,has a decent feel for developing creases. Lacks top end speed but is a banger and a competitor almost always running downhill. At his best when running between the tackles and it will be interesting to see if he can flash enough speed to get around the corner. Great pass blocker and picks up the blitz well.
Wide Receivers
There Is Bryant Then The Rest At Receiver This Year
Dez Bryant-Okl St. Despite receiving a season long suspension for lying after three games and declaring after his junior year Bryant remains the number one rated wide receiver. Bryant is a long,lean, fluid receiver that was super productive at Oklahoma State. His suspension though concerning is more likely a stupid mistake, than a malicious act, Bryant is a smart kid who did well in school. He was a play-maker scoring 29 touchdowns and recorded 147 receptions in a little over two years time. Will need to impress at the combine to keep his current rank, because he has not played a game since early October. Scouts will be looking to see if he shows up in shape, but also needs to post decent running numbers especially in the agility drills. Attacks the ball,showing soft hands. Tough and durable will go into the middle. Quicker than fast.
Arrelious Benn-Illinois Benn has the look of an NFL receiver, he has the size 6’2″ 220 lbs. and speed but has he shown enough? Benn was the victim of playing in a run first offense with a hybrid QB who frankly is a bad passer. Did this hamper Benn’s progress? Absolutely, but since he is a junior he doesn’t have the benefit of showing up to the post season college all star games. Benn will need to have a great combine. Scouts will look to see if he catches with his hands and not his body, they will look to see if he runs his routes crisply. Benn could slide up to the 10-18 area in the first round and could drop all the way out of the end of the first and land some where in the third round. Likely a project.
Brandon LaFell-LSU LaFell was the consensus number one rated WR heading into the 2009 season. He was the victim of a struggling offense and a young quarterback and his numbers suffered as a result. He did score 11 receiving touchdowns. LaFell is a gamer and is a physical receiver at 6’2″ 205. Strong hands and can make all the catches, has worked hard on his hands and is an average route runner that still needs more work. LaFell will need to wow the scouts to move into the first round, but he will be a solid player for whatever team selects him as long as he continues to work hard.
Golden Tate-Notre Dame Tate broke out in his sophomore year hauling in 10 touchdowns and had over 1,000 yards. For an encore in his junior campaign he had over 90+ receptions for about 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns. His huge production the last two seasons has catapulted his value to the first round. Though not blessed with great size 5’11″ 195 lbs Tate plays bigger than his frame, and is more quick than fast. A solid receiver with great hands, and has the ability to read coverages and find the soft spot in coverages. Shows good strength in his blocking and when fighting for the ball. Will need to show above average speed to stay in the first round.
Mardy Gilyard-Cincinnati Gilyard finished his senior year (87-1191-11)with eerily similar numbers to his junior year(81-1276-11). He has average speed to go along with a light frame 6’1″ 180 lbs. that could definitely stand to add some weight. Gilyard is a gamer that possesses the intangibles that you look for in a football player. He is tough, a leader and hard working. Fights for the ball in traffic, goes across the middle fearlessly and has improved greatly in his route running all the while having the innate ability to get open and come back to the quarterback when flushed out. Gilyard will likely be drafted in the middle of the second round but like all of these players, they can help or hurt their values with all of the off-season draft preparation events. (Senior Bowl Updates: Rebounded After Poor Opening Practice/Scored Touchdown In Game,Played Above Average)
Tight Ends
Jermaine Gresham-Oklahoma Gresham returned for his senior season after having an outstanding junior year(66-950-14). He injured his right knee before the start of the season which required season ending surgery. Gresham is a long 6’6″ 260 lbs. with fluid running and speed that most NFL tight ends would kill for. Has great soft hands and will come down with almost any ball thrown in his direction. Sloppy route runner at times and needs a ton of work on his blocking skills. Played in a spread attack. If he can participate in any portion of the combine or can work out before the draft he has the potential to move up into the top 20 of the first round. Teams could be scared off if he is unable to workout and he could slide into the second round.
Aaron Hernandez-Florida Hernandez is entering the draft after a very successful junior campaign in which he finished with 68 receptions for 850 yards and five touchdowns and capitalizing on this years void of talent at the Tight-End position. Hernandez was undeniably a play-maker in the Gator offense but he was way too open, way too often. That will be part of the difficulty of trying to fully evaluate Hernandez’s ability since he slipped by way too many defenders biting on misdirection of Florida’s busy offense. Possesses plus hands and is great after the catch. He has shown the ability to do some blocking, was able to hold his own on most individual assignments but still needs work.