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Posted by Sean in Fantasy Advice, First Look, Rank, Ranks, Wide Receivers on Jan 22nd 2010 (Print This)
Roddy White looks to get the Falcons back on track in 2010.
Dynasty leagues are a whole other ball game. You’re running an organization for not just the “now”, but for the future as well. Fantasy becomes more like reality as GMs are forced to consider outside of the current season. A mix of steady vets, mid-year “primers” and some diaper dandies make for the perfect blend for continued relevance. Buying on the cheap, selling before the crash and seeing production before it happens is all part of fantasy success.
Key Wide-Out Questions Heading Into 2010:
Who’s #1? Although Larry Fitzgerald is two years younger than Andre Johnson, AJ still covets our top rank. Teams were able to keep Fitz’s stats in check this season. He was still a top performer, but he did not live up to the unrealistic expectations placed upon him by fantasy nation in 09. Opposing defensive units were able to limit Fitz’s deep production as they played Arizona on the safer side. The emergence of the running game behind Beanie Wells, and the potential retirement of Kurt Warner does not bode well for the play-maker’s production. He’ll still be a top finisher for years to come, but AJ gets the slight nod based on these factors.
Where will Anquan Boldin and Brandon Marshall end up? Both players have undeniable talent, but both come with extreme risk. Boldin is as physical a receiver as they come. He likes to deliver the hit. He has that running back mentality. But his style of play leaves him open to injury. Boldin has missed significant time over the past two seasons. The Cards got a chance to see Early Doucet’s and Steve Breaston’s potential in their two playoff games. Boldin has been begging for a re-structuring of his contract. The Cards will most likely not re-sign him so we expect him to be re-located for next season. Potential destinations: Baltimore, Miami or Cleveland.
Brandon Marshall has the talent to be the best in the business, but his off the field antics have started to follow him onto the field. There is nothing worse than wasted talent, but that is exactly what the hot-headed receiver is doing. Marshall has prototypical red-zone size and has the possession skills to compete for the reception title. He’s a beast, but his diva-like reputation makes him a risky pick up.
How much time will Wes Welker miss? Welker is as consistent as they come. He is the first wide-out in NFL history to put together three consecutive 110-plus reception seasons. He is a weekly threat to post double digit catches. His Week 17 knee injury was a bad one. Tearing both his MCL and ACL will work against his strengths. He’s not expected to return until mid-season. Julian Edelman will get his chance to start, but in no way is he Wes Welker.
How much do Derrick Mason and Donald Driver have left in the tank? Year in and year out, we expect these vets to decline and they don’t. They have defied nature and have gotten better with age. But one can only escape Father Time for so long. Mason has already retired once. There has been little mention of his off-season plans. Baltimore is extremely thin at wide-out and will have huge shoes to fill if he chooses to hang up his cleats. Driver arguably had one of his best seasons as a pro. Aaron Rodgers is the real deal. He was able to make the aging vet look like a youth again. Green Bay is stacked with young talent at the WR and TE position. James Jones, Jordy Nelson and Finely are all more than capable of picking up the slack once the vet makes his departure.
Is Megatron and Injury Risk? Calvin Johnson may be the most athletically gifted wide-out available, but he has yet to piece together an entire season of healthy production. Does he deserve the injury tag? His incredible upside makes him an easy top five selection, but his fragility made us weary of keeping him in the top three. As Matt Stafford matures, Megatron’s numbers should rise. Calvin would benefit from the Lions obtaining another receiving threat to relieve some of the defensive pressure and double/triple teams he’s been seeing on a weekly basis. If Brandon Pettigrew can grow into his potential, it’s one other peice of the puzzle that’s in place.
Potential Buy Low Targets? Roddy White and Greg Jennings. Heading into the 09 season, they both carried potential top-5 status. Things did not end up that way as Jennings struggled to find his groove and the whole Falcon offense took a step back. Both players and both teams showed signs of remedying their problems down the stretch. Jennings showed flashes of his 08 form as the season progressed and should bounce back in 2010. Matt Ryan’s sophomore struggles along with a nagging toe injury and Micheal Turners absence, all combined to keep Roddy White’s numbers in check. He still finished strong, but his ceiling is much higher. All Falcon players should have a bounce back season in 2010. White still carries top-5 potential. Given his multiple knee injuries and sporatic QB play, I’d add Calvin to the “buy low” category. True, he may warrant the injury risk label, but if he can stay healthy and grow with his young QB – the sky is the limit.
Is Michael Crabtree the next big thing? We like him, but don’t love him. He showed glimpses in 09, but his holdout and WR1 status prohibited him from making the most of his first year. Percy pulled down Rookie of the Year honors, but we’re excited about some of these other second year names heading into 2010: Hakeem Nicks, Jeremy Maclin and Kenny Britt should all make the jump to become weekly fantasy contibutors.
Trends at the position:
Spread Formation Infestation - The Evolution of the WR3: In 2008, Steve Breaston was the only WR3 worth owning. This year, the infestation of the spread formation has lead to the emergence of unlikely fantasy contributors. 2009 could be considered the “Year of the Rookie Wide Receiver”. The “Three Year Theory” states that the learning curve for rookie pass-catchers is three seasons. It has been ingrained into fantasy culture to not draft rookie wide-outs, but as offenses open up, opportunities have arisen. Austin Collie, Mike Wallace, Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks all made their way onto the field as WR3’s. They started on the wire but have made their way into starting line-ups. Other WR3’s that have made fantasy impacts include Robert Meachem, James Jones and Andre Caldwell. The WR3 spot on your fantasy squad remains the hardest to fill. As more teams have turned to the air, the wide-out position is as deep as ever. The “Running Days” are done. Running Backs were once the staple of fantasy success, but the RB – RB draft strategy is dead. Backs have become the easiest position to fill. Stud WRs have proven to be the more valuable commodity.
Play-Maker saturation leading to dilution of targets: High-powered offenses lead to fantasy production. The New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts, not only have the two best records in the league, but they are the most talent-stacked units in all of football. Their studs are studs, but play-maker saturation leads to the dilution of touches and targets. Trying to decide between Devery Henderson and Robet Meachem, Pierre Garcon or Austin Collie has become a headache for owners on a weekly basis.
1) Andre Johnson – HOU – WR
2) Larry Fitzgerald – ARI – WR
3) Miles Austin – DAL – WR
4) Calvin Johnson – DET – WR
5) Roddy White – ATL – WR
6) Vincent Jackson – SDC – WR
7) DeSean Jackson – PHI – WR
8) Greg Jennings – GRE – WR
9) Marques Colston – NOR – WR
10) Reggie Wayne – IND – WR
11) Sidney Rice – MIN – WR
12) Brandon Marshall – DEN – WR
13) Steve Smith – NYG – WR
14) Santonio Holmes – PIT – WR
15) Randy Moss – NEP – WR
16) Percy Harvin – MIN – WR
17) Dwayne Bowe – KAN – WR
18) Michael Crabtree – SFO – WR
19) Steve Smith – CAR – WR
20) Pierre Garcon – IND – WR
21) Hakeem Nicks – NYG – WR
22) Anquan Boldin – ARI – WR
23) Wes Welker – NEP – WR
24) Austin Collie – IND – WR
25) Kenny Britt – TEN – WR
26) Jeremy Maclin – PHI – WR
27) Mike Sims-Walker – JAC – WR
28) Chad Ochocinco – CIN – WR
29) Steve Breaston – ARI – WR
30) Robert Meachem – NOR – WR
31) Mike Wallace – PIT – WR
32) Early Doucet – ARI – WR
33) Hines Ward – PIT – WR
34) Jerricho Cotchery – NYJ – WR
35) Santana Moss – WAS – WR
36) Braylon Edwards – NYJ – WR
37) Mohamed Massaquoi – CLE – WR
38) James Jones – GRE – WR
39) Devin Aromashodu – CHI – WR
40) Eddie Royal – DEN – WR
41) Julian Edelman – NEP – WR
42) Donnie Avery – STL – WR
43) Lee Evans – BUF – WR
44) Devin Thomas – WAS – WR
45) Chaz Schilens – OAK – WR
46) Bernard Berrian – MIN – WR
47) Anthony Gonzalez – IND – WR
48) Davone Bess – MIA – WR
49) Jacoby Jones – HOU – WR
50) Donald Driver – GRE – WR
51) Roy E. Williams – DAL – WR
52) Mario Manningham – NYG – WR
53) Antonio Bryant – TAM – WR
54) T.J. Houshmandzadeh – SEA – WR
55) Devin Hester – CHI – WR
56) Laurent Robinson – STL – WR
57) Mike Thomas – JAC – WR
58) Malcom Floyd – SDC – WR
59) Jabar Gaffney – DEN – WR
60) Johnny Knox – CHI – WR
61) Kevin Walter – HOU – WR
62) Brian Hartline – MIA – WR
63) Josh Morgan – SFO – WR
64)Deon Butler – SEA – WR
65) Nate Burleson – SEA – WR
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