There Was No One Better In 2009 And We Expect The Same In 2010

The NFL playoffs are in full swing and almost all of the fantasy seasons are done with until next year. Unless of course you are one of the lucky ones that participates in a keeper league or a dynasty league. We take our first crack at the dynasty ranks this week with the second installment of positional dynasty ranks. (Monday QBs,Friday WRs and TEs the 1/27)

Today we take our 1ST LOOK at the running backs. There are a million things that will happen between now and the start of next  season. Anything and everything that could happen including injuries,trades, salary dumps, free-agency and retirements. Just to add to the mayhem there are new Head Coaches starting  their new jobs all across the NFL landscape all the while changing their offensive schemes that could effect all the players that play on that team.

One of the biggest changes to deal with are the incoming rookies. It is way too early in the process to rank the rookies in this Dynasty rank but they will be added once there is more film evaluated and we get a good look at them at the combine. C.J. Spiller enters the post season process as the consensus first running back that will be taken in the draft, but players will rise and drop between now and April 22nd. Let’s take a look at the top four as things stand now.

2010 Incoming Rookies

Dwyer Is The Best Bet To Have The Most Carries Amongst The Rookies In 2010?

1. CJ Spiller-Clemson 5′11″ 195    Spiller is a home run threat every time  he touches the ball. Whether he is running the ball, catching a swing pass out of the backfield or returning kicks he has game breaker written all over him. Though he is a little on small size and does seem to get dinged up more than you would want or like to have in a back. Spiller will likely be the first back taken come the NFL draft in April. He lacks the size right now to be on the field every down but he will make an immediate impact on what ever team drafts him. Worst case scenario for his rookie year would likely be returning kicks and getting 10 touches a game, but with all his talent it will be hard to keep him off the field.

2. Jonathan Dwyer-Georgia Tech 6′1″ 235 Dwyer was an underrated back outside of the ACC. He has the size, speed and power to be an every down back. The biggest knock on Dwyer will likely be about his hands since he played in a run first option attack and recorded only 15 receptions in his three year career.

3. Ryan Matthews-Fresno St. 5′11″  220 Matthews will be the most interesting candidate  after playing in a relatively small W.A.C. conference. Matthews dominated the competition rushing for over 100 yards in every game except one in which he left with an injury that also forced him to miss the next game as well. He has the most potential to take the biggest leap up the draft board.

4.Jahvid Best-California 5′10″ 195 Best was one of the best before suffering a very scary neck injury when he had his legs cut out from under him resulting on him landing on his neck. He proceeded to miss the rest of the season including the Bear’s bowl game. Best by all reports has made progress on the injury front and will need to show the NFL brass that he is ready by the time the combine rolls around. Blessed with blazing speed, he is a poor man’s Spiller and the comparison is more a testament to Spiller’s unique game breaking ability than a knock on Best.  Like Spiller, Best is a threat from anywhere on the field.

I have ranked the Dynasty backs ranked up to 50, yes I know it is a lot but I promise I will start paring the number down as the off-season rolls on. The first 13 players all have write ups and then I have broken down the ranks every ten or so.  I have added what the players age will be during the 2010 season and I have counted next season towards the count for seasons played. The Total career carries are indicative of the regular season and playoff carries are not included.

1) Chris Johnson – TEN – RB
Age:25 Seasons:3 Total Career Carries:609

Johnson was lights out in 2009 with 12 one hundred yard rushing games and finished the year with eleven, one hundred yard games in a row. He finished the season with 2,006 yards and 14 touchdowns on 358 carries for an electric 5.9 yards per carry. He also had 50 receptions for 503 yards and added two scores. Entering the 2010 season he will be the consensus number one pick in any league.

2) Adrian Peterson – MIN – RB
Age:25 Seasons:4 Total Career Carries:915

A.P. entered 2009 as everyone’s consensus number one pick in most league formats. He was solid and steady all year finishing with 1,383 yards and had led the league in rushing touchdowns with 18. He also was more involved in the passing game this year doubling his receptions total of the previous two seasons having 43 receptions for 436 yards receiving. Peterson is a solid dependable back with power and long speed. The only knock on his game is his fumbling problem, he lost 6 this year bringing his career total to 13.

3) Maurice Jones-Drew – JAC – RB
Age:25 Seasons:5 Total Career Carries:842

Jones-Drew was able to handle an increase in his workload after assuming the starter role after Fred Taylor was released. MJD did not disappoint in 2009, finishing the season with 312 carries 1391 yards and 15 touchdowns. He continues to be a threat in the passing game finishing with 53 receptions 374 yards 1 touchdown.

4) Ray Rice – BAL – RB
Age:23 Seasons:3 Total Career Carries:361

Rice had a breakout year in his second season. Showing the league he was a dual threat beast. He finished with 254 carries 1339 yards 7 touchdowns for a 5.3 y.p.c. He led all backs with 78 receptions for 702 yards and added a score. Rice lost goal-line carries to RB Willis McGahee and RB LeRon McClain who were both used in short yardage sets.

5) Steven Jackson – STL – RB
Age:27 Seasons:7 Total Career Carries:1584

Jackson was passed on owners in their drafts due to the his injury history and the make up of a potentially lousy Rams team. SJack rewarded owners that took a shot on him with a remarkable season. He finished 2009 second in the league in rushing with 324 carries 1416 yards 4 touchdowns. He succeeded despite opposing defenses stacking the box knowing the Rams had a very poor passing game, his 4 touchdowns were an aberration and expect his touchdown totals to increase to double digits in 2010 in has to be an improved offense. SJack is still a threat in the pass game as witnessed by his 51 receptions for 322 yards receiving.

Charles Took The Biggest Leap From Pre-Season To Post Season

6) Jamaal Charles – KAN – RB
Age:24 Seasons:3 Total Career Carries:257

Charles story was the story of two seasons he started out the season as a backup playing second fiddle to RB Larry Johnson until RB Larry Johnson’s meltdown. Up to that point he had only 152 yards rushing and was inactive for one game.Charles second season essentially started in week 10. He rushed for 968 yards and added 7 scores to finish the season with 1120 yards rushing 7 touchdowns and tied RB Chris Johnson for high y.p.c with 5.9. He also added 40 receptions for 297 yards. It will be interesting to see how well Charles can do in 2010 as the starter from the get go. The Chiefs offense was much improved as the season went on and a large part of that was the play of the former Longhorn.

7) Jonathan Stewart – CAR – RB
Age:23 Seasons:3 Total Career Carries:405

Stewart started 09 slowly having only one one hundred yard rushing game in the first twelve games of the season. From week 13 he had four one hundred yard games with one of the games being a two hundred yard game. He finished the season ranked 9th in rushing with 221 carries 1133 yards 10 touchdowns. He also more than doubled his previous reception total with 18 receptions for 139 yards and 1 touchdown. JStew’s value is tied directly to RB DeAngelo Williams’ situation. If the Panthers decide to part ways with Williams, Stewart would be come the de facto starter in a run first offense.The one knock on Stewart is his season long battle with his achilles injury that has been nagging him for over a year. (Update: 1/20 Jonathan announced he would be undergoing surgery today to take care of the achilles   injury )

8) Michael Turner – ATL – RB
Age:28 Seasons:7 Total Career Carries:782

Turner entered 2009 with some baggage with fantasy owners concerned about his carry totals in 2008. Owners were worried about the curse of too many carries and he slipped in some drafts. Turner had impressive stats 178 carries 871 yards rushing 10 touchdowns 4.9 y.p.c. before going down with a high ankle sprain in week 10 which effectively ended his season. He did appear twice more during the season but re-injured his ankle both times and was finally shut down. Turner will be completely healthy in 2010 and will likely be a top ten draft pick in most leagues.

9) Rashard Mendenhall – PIT – RB
Age:23 Seasons:3 Total Career Carries:261

Mendenhall entered 2009 slated to back up RB Willie Parker but Parker was ineffective due to injury. Mendenhall started week 4 and never looked back. He finished with 242 carries 1108 touchdowns 7 touchdowns and had 25 receptions 261 yards and 1 touchdown receiving. The Steelers became a pass first team in 2009 but a return to more balanced offense is likely in store for 2010. I have never been sold on Mendenhall and he surprised me this year showing some speed to go along with his size but the jury is till out on his long term value.

10) Cedric Benson – CIN – RB
Age:28 Seasons:6 Total Career Carries:935

While RB Ray Rice was the breakout player this year, Benson was the Lazarus man returning from the scrap heap in 2009 after showing the Bengals some potential in 2008. He finished with career highs in carries 301 rushing yards 1251 touchdowns 6 doing all this in only 13 games due to missing two games with a hip and sitting out the last game.

11) DeAngelo Williams – CAR – RB
Age:27 Seasons:5 Total Career Carries:754

Williams entered 2009 expected to split the carries with Jonathan Stewart but his play forced the Panthers to keep Stewart on the bench resulting in a larger split in carries. Williams’ injury essentially ended his season early in week 12 but was able to return for two games before finally getting shut down after having only 19 carries after week 13. Despite all that missed time DWill finished with 216 carries 1117 yards 7 touchdowns 5.2 y.p.c. and added 29 receptions for 252 yards. Williams has become expendable and could find himself playing for a new team in 2010.

12) Frank Gore – SFO – RB
Age:27 Seasons:6 Total Career Carries:1168

Gore had an up and down season. There was concern about his body breaking down and questions about his long speed after failing to break a run longer than 43 yards in the previous two seasons. He assuaged all the doubters in week two after breaking a 79 yard touchdown and later added and 80 yarder. He dealt with an injury suffered in week 3 and the proceeded to miss the next three games. Then there was the three week span (11-13)where he saw only 32 carries. The 49ers realized the need to establish the run and in the next four games averaging 23 carries. Gore finished the season with 1120 yards and ten touchdowns and 52 receptions 406 receiving yards 3 touchdowns after basically missing three games.

13) Ryan Grant – GRE – RB
Age:28 Seasons:4 Total Career Carries:782

Grant had the year I predicted he would back in August when I was writing our draft kit. I said he would have more touchdowns(4 in 2008 to 11 in 2009) and increase in y.p.c (3.9 in 08 to 4.4. in 09) this season and he was undervalued heading into drafts. Grant is not a game breaker by any means but he is able to get the job done in a pass first offense. He is and should be good for 1,200 yards and around 10 touchdowns for the next few seasons. The Packers offense will be a force to be reckoned with in 2010 as Rodgers will continue to improve making the entire offense even better in 2010.

14-20 Rank Commments

Brown’s career continues to be plagued by injuries. Moreno and Wells are expected to earn more carries and hopefully more goal line touches next year. Greene has looked like a beast the last few weeks during the playoffs and Thomas Jones’ contract situation will ultimately determine where both Jones and Greene end up in the ranks. Is Forte really the second coming of Rashaan Salaam? Will Addai re-sign with the Colts or prepare for free agency in 2011?

14) Ronnie Brown – MIA – RB
Age:29 Seasons:6 Total Career Carries:928

Put on I.R. week 11

15) Knowshon Moreno – DEN – RB
Age:23 Seasons:2 Total Career Carries: 247

16) Beanie Wells – ARI – RB
Age:22 Seasons:2 Total Career Carries:176

17) Shonn Greene – NYJ – RB
Age:25 Seasons:2 Total Career Carries:108

18) Matt Forte – CHI – RB
Age:25 Seasons:3 Total Career Carries:574

19) Thomas Jones – NYJ – RB
Age:32 Seasons:11 Total Career Carries:2280

20) Joseph Addai – IND – RB
Age:27 Seasons:6 Total Career Carries:861

21-30 Rank Comments

Harrison showed Mangini more than enough that he has earned the starting job and played a huge role in the Browns late season revival. Williams and Barber were hampered by injuries throughout the entire season in 2009.  Thomas,Jackson and Jacobs all have other backs on this list nipping at their heels heading into 2010. Felix Jones and Bradshaw are both speed guys that could eventually unseat the power guy ahead of  them on the depth chart. FJackson and Forsett will both either prosper of suffer under new coaches after both having more than earned the starting job under their old coaches.

21) Jerome Harrison – CLE – RB
Age:27 Seasons:5 Total Career Carries:271

22) Cadillac Williams – TAM – RB
Age:28 Seasons:6 Total Career Carries:842

23) Marion Barber – DAL – RB
Age:27 Seasons:6 Total Career Carries:929

24) Pierre Thomas – NOR – RB
Age:26 Seasons:4 Total Career Carries:328

25) Fred Jackson – BUF – RB
Age:29 Seasons:4 Career Carries:425

26) LeSean McCoy – PHI – RB
Age:22 Seasons:2 Career Carries:155

27) Felix Jones – DAL – RB
Age:23 Seasons:3 Career Carries:146

28) Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG – RB
Age:24 Seasons:4 Career Carries:253

29) Brandon Jacobs – NYG – RB
Age:28 Seasons:6 Career Carries:779

30) Justin Forsett – SEA – RB
Age:25 Seasons:3 Career Carries:114

31-42 Rank Comments

The real question marks begin here. Will Kevin Smith recover from surgery and will the Lions o-line ever improve?Will Donald Brown be the starter next year if Addai flies the coop? Have the Colts seen enough to trust him to be the lead guy? White will almost certainly hit the free agency path, the question is where does he end up? Maroney was handed the keys to the offense and again fumbled it away, I know you know I’m going to say it. “Bust”. Lynch’s 3 game suspension set him back in every way and now looks as though he could be out of the starting job in 2010.  Foster auditioned for a role in 2010 and was pretty successful, the question is will H.C. Gary Kubiak feel comfortable running with Foster getting the running downs and Steve Slaton getting the passing downs? Or will he look to free agency and the draft to address the depth? Michael Bush was the most impressive Raiders back this year but that could change as Oakland looks like it will be another season of upheaval.  Hightower,Sproles,Reggie Bush and Leon Washington are all better receivers than runners and could never take the load.

31) Kevin Smith – DET – RB
Age:24 Seasons:3 Career Carries:455

32) Donald Brown – IND – RB
Age:23 Seasons:2 Career Carries:78

33) LenDale White – TEN – RB
Age:26 Seasons:6 Career Carries:628

34) Laurence Maroney – NEP – RB
Age:25 Seasons:5 Career Carries:582

35) Marshawn Lynch – BUF – RB
Age:24 Seasons:4 Career Carries:650

36) Arian Foster – HOU – RB
Age:24 Seasons:2 Career Carries:54

37) Michael Bush – OAK – RB
Age:26Seasons: 3 Career Carries:218

38) Tashard Choice – DAL – RB
Age:26 Seasons:3 Career Carries:156

39) Tim Hightower – ARI – RB
Age:24 Seasons:3 Career Carries:286

40) Darren Sproles – SDC – RB
Age:27 Seasons:5 Career Carries:199

41) Reggie Bush – NOR – RB
Age:25Seasons:5 Career Carries:488

42) Leon Washington – NYJ – RB
Age:28 Seasons:5 Career Carries:370

I.R. Week 8

43-50 Rank Comments

Ricky Williams would have been higher on the list if he wasn’t so insistent that he will retire at the end of his current contract. Jennings,Scott and Coffee all need more time to develop. Coffee and Jennings both had great opportunities to seal the deal on an increase in playing time and both were unable to impress coaches enough. Ganther will most likely be off this list in the next round, he showed us nothing here and I’m sure Shanahan will feel the same way but then again he has gotten more out of nothing at running back. After 3 injury plagued season Jackson appears to finally have turned the corner. Steve Slaton was the biggest point of contention at the Brotherhood. A few of the fellow writers were amazed that he was so far down the list. I asked why should he be higher? The response was always the same he had 1,600 yards in 2008 and he will only be 25. That isn’t good enough for me. As much as his fumbles were a concern which ultimately began his demise as the starter it was really the lack of production that really scared me. He was tied for a league worst 3.3 y.p.c. Yes he is a threat as a receiver but as a runner 2008 is starting to look like an aberration. Will his rank move in the off-season? Probably but right now he is on the cusp of being booted off the rank.

43) Chris Jennings – CLE – RB
Age:25 Seasons:2 Career Carries:63

44) Quinton Ganther – WAS – RB
Age:25 Seasons:3 Career Carries:71

45) Ricky Williams – MIA – RB
Age:33 Seasons:10 Career Carries:2164

46) Brandon Jackson – GRE – RB
Age:25 Seasons:4 Career Carries:157

47) Glen Coffee – SFO – RB
Age:23 Seasons:2 Career Carries:83

48) Bernard Scott – CIN – RB
Age:26 Seasons:2 Career Carries:74

49) Steve Slaton – HOU – RB
Age:25 Seasons:3 Career Carries:399

I.R. Week 13

50) Darren McFadden – OAK – RB
Age:23 Seasons:3 Career Carries:217

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