Posted by Bill in Fantasy Advice,Ranks,Running Backs on Oct 30th 2009 and last modified on Nov 2nd 2009. (Print This)
Part One Picks 1-6
1. Adrian Peterson-MIN-RB- There has been no one more consistent and that is with or with out it being a P.P.R. league format. He will likely stay here even when we re-evaluate this mock draft in a few months with a schedule that will ease up after this week. Simply put nobody has been better.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew-JAC-RB- MJD is probably A.P.’s biggest threat at stealing the number one spot. The Jags need to continue to feed the human bowling ball the rock on a more consistent basis for that to happen. It would be an even harder choice to make him one overall in a full point P.P.R. formats since he is on pace for around 70 receptions.
3. Cedric Benson-CIN-RB- Maybe their isn’t really a Hard Knocks curse after all. Benson is on pace to finish with 1,500+ yards and about a dozen touchdowns yes that is on the conservative side, and no their hasn’t been a better story than this guy.
4. Steven Jackson-STL-RB-This is where things start to get tough. I’m going to go with Steven Jackson with the hope that he gets some help on the offensive side of the ball. Jackson is more talented than Benson, but Benson has the advantage of being on a team that actually has a pulse.
5. Ray Rice-BAL-RB- Since this is a half point P.P.R. format, Rice’s value increases that much more. He has exploded on to the scene as an everyday back and has thrived despite not being the goal line back. Look for him to improve as the Ravens will look to continue to rely on him to move the ball in huge chunks whether through the air or ground.
6. Andre Johnson-HOU-WR- Johnson leads the league in targets, and will likely finish in the top three in yardage and touchdowns and top 5 in receptions. In the world of fantasy football, the reliable elite wide receiver is becoming a rarer and rarer thing to find, and live up to high expectations.
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WEEK 8 RANKS
Beanie Wells Finds Himself The Subject Of The Rant Of The Week
1) Maurice Jones-Drew – JAC – RB
You have got to love a team coming off a bye against a terrible defense. MJD will get a steady dose of touches this week, and I would say bump him up in P.P.R. formats, but he is ranked number one this week. Jones-Drew will likely do most of his damage through the air this week, as the Titans are 10th in run stopping, but 31st through the air.
2) Adrian Peterson – MIN – RB
The rematch of the Vikings Favre against the Favreless Packers will be the big story this week. A.P. has had his lowest season output the last time these two teams met running the ball 25 times for 55 yards but saved the day for owners with a touchdown. Though all the signs point to a possible poor outing with a fired up emotional opponent at home, but always start your studs.
3) Steven Jackson – STL – RB
I said a few weeks ago that Jackson would finally hit pay dirt that week, well a few weeks later, and here I go again. I’m not really going out on a limb here since this is the first let up on their schedule since playing the Redskins. The Lions have allowed over 30 points a game this season, so I’m liking my bet this week.
4) Ronnie Brown – MIA – RB
Brown was shut down against the Saints last week rushing for only 48 yards, but has scored in each of his last three games. Including scoring two touchdowns against the Jets who they just faced only three weeks ago. The Jets have been getting run on all over by opposing offenses, are now allowing an average of 116 yards
5) Frank Gore – SFO – RB
Gore had a less than stellar return last week against the Titans. The switch at QB from Shaun Hill to Alex Smith should aid this run first team, by effectively using play-action and punishing teams when they begin to cheat in against the run. The Colts have left a lot to be desired in their run stopping defense they are currently ranked 19th allowing 112 yards a game.
6) Kevin Smith – DET – RB
Smith makes his debut in the Top Ten this week with a choice match up against the lowly Rams who bring their 27th ranked run defense to Detroit as they are allowing a 135 yards a game on the ground. Smith could be aided by the return of QB Matt Stafford, though Megatron looks like he will likely miss another game.
7) Michael Turner – ATL – RB
Turner is ranked this high based solely on his ability to find the end-zone having scored in five straight games. This week with the Saints on tap and after allowing four rushing touchdowns against the Dolphins his chances look good to add on to his touchdown streak. The concerning part of his game has been the 3.4 y.p.c. which will likely not improve this weekend, and putting the ball on the turf four times already this year. The passing game needs to open up the run game at this point for the Falcons to be successful.
8) Chris Johnson – TEN – RB
If I told you at the beginning of the season that at the week 8 mark, Johnson was 5th in the NFL in rushing and second in yards per carry with 6.3 and had 7 runs of over twenty yards or more would you be excited or disappointed? I know for certain that most owners are disappointed due to his lack of touchdowns this season with only three total which all by the way came in that one game. You know the one. After that game there where fantasy owners who owned him and were like I just won my league, and the owners who didn’t have him were like how do I even have a chance against this guy?
9) Steve Slaton – HOU – RB
Slaton has become a touchdown machine as of late scoring five touchdowns in the last four games. Yardage wise he has not eclipsed 76 yards rushing and has only had more than a hundred total yards offense twice while also continuing to fumble the ball away (4 times), and their has been little improvement with his yards per carry which is currently 3.1 (only L.J. has a lower y.p.c. number among backs with 75 carries or more.)
10) LaDainian Tomlinson – SDC – RB
This is the make or break game for LDT owners. If the once mighty Tomlinson can’t gash the Raiders after the Jets rushed for a combined 314 yards for a 5.4 y.p.c. and 4 rushing TDs against the ghastly Raiders and their 30th ranked run defense(yes there are actually two worse run defenses)who are currently allowing and average of 170 yards rushing a game then he never will.
11) Ray Rice – BAL – RB
Rice and Baltimore return from a bye week to face the Broncos and their 3rd ranked run defense at home. Going into the bye Rice had exploded in his last three games averaging a 160 yards a game rushing and receiving including a P.P.R. bumping 22 receptions and then add in three total touchdowns. Pretty decent numbers for the guy who look like he would be taking a backseat to the resurgent Willis McGahee, pt owners have been rewarded, and impatient owners have given away a potential top 5 RB.
12) Matt Forte – CHI – RB
I had Forte ranked at the four spot at the beginning of the week, and the more I though about it the more I knew I would be knocking him back come Friday. I know the Bears are playing the Browns and the 31st ranked run defense that is allowing an average of 171 whopping rush yards a game, but what has the once highly regarded consensus top four RB done this year? Aside from killing owners who drafted him or thought they were outsmarting other owners in a buy low maneuver. Aside from his 37 yard touchdown, and long run of 61 yards against the Lions he has done nothing but make fantasy owners miserable.
13) DeAngelo Williams – CAR – RB
Having faced two of the worst run defenses in a row, the polar opposite happpens this week with the Cardinals on tap and the Saints the following week. The Panthers run game was able to thrive in spite of the play of beleaguered QB Jake Delhomme in the last two games. That all changes with better opponents and Delhomme’s play has been so bad that it is now affecting every aspect of this team. If the Panthers can get the run game going it would be an impressive feat against the legit number one run stopping defense of the Cardinals who are allowing an astonishing 68 yards a game. If the QB can minimize his mistakes then Williams, and Stewart will have a chance to be fantasy relevant, but if their doors get blown off it could get very ugly for both backs.
14) Ryan Grant – GRE – RB
I predicted Grant finally breaking a hundred yards rushing I know astonishing prediction against the Browns. This week the task becomes much more difficult in the rematch with the Vikes and their 10th ranked run defense that has been allowing 95 yards a game. Grant has quietly been having a decent year as of late having had at least 100 yards total offense in his last four games including against the Vikings where he rushed for 51 yards(4.6 y.p.c.) and 50 yards receiving on 4 receptions. This will be an emotional game for the Packers and it will be a good one.
15) Thomas Jones – NYJ – RB
Jones has been on fire as of late, gashing and slashing his way through run defenses that were softer than warm butter. The problem is when facing a tough Run-D he tends to disappear, as witnessed in games against N.E.,Ten,N.O., and Miami all games in which Jones failed to rush for over 50 yards though he was able to score a TD against the Saints and punched it in twice against the Dolphins.
16) Pierre Thomas – NOR – RB
Thomas is quickly going from a must start fantasy running back to one of the many stuck in a muddled backfield situation losing more and more touches to Mike Bell with each passing week. Thomas needs to start cutting back into Bell’s time as Thomas is the more talented back. Pierre was shut down last week against a tough Dolphins run defense, but should have an easier time this week establishing the rock against Atlanta and the 23rd ranked run stopping defense who are allowing 118 yards a game.
17) Joseph Addai – IND – RB
Addai gets a bump this week with the likelihood of backfield mate Donald Brown missing this game with a shoulder contusion. Addai has had a decent season despite being in a 50-50 split with the rookie. His yards per carry have left something to be desired but despite the timeshare he has managed 5 total touchdowns in six games and is a P.P.R. machine on pace to finish the season with around 70 receptions. If Brown is indeed out, Addai become a must start despite the tough matchup against the tough 49ers who are allowing only 88 yards a game on the ground. In todays fantasy world a running back that is going to get 20-30 touches is a must start no matter how tough the opposing defense is.
18) Brandon Jacobs – NYG – RB
Jacobs played one of his better games of the season last week against the number one ranked run defense Arizona Cardinals who have been allowing on 67 y ards per game rushing, Jacobs himself rushed for 76 yards for a 5.8 y.p.c. and topped it off with a TD. Now news of fellow backfield mate Ahmad Bradshaw playing on a cracked footbone that could break at any time only increases his worth going forward. Up next the up and down Eagles and their 11th ranked run stopping defense
19) Marion Barber – DAL – RB
MBIII has become the number one back and will get the majority of touches, and will also be used as the goal line back. He still has Felix Jones to deal with and Tashard Choice is always waiting for another opportunity as the best 3rd string back in the NFL. The Cowboys get to face the jekyll and Hyde Seahawks who have two wins this year both shutouts. The Hawks have played very well on defense and also have been gashed like Frank Gore did in week 2 for over 200 hundered yards rushing.
20) Marshawn Lynch – BUF – RB
Lynch’s number and value have suffered greatly due to the poor play of Buffalo’s QBs. Even though it appears Lynch’s biggest threat to his touches has been slowly phased out, the real cuprits have been the never ending three and outs, and the young Bills offensive lines inability to open up holes. Lynch has seen his touches stay at 17,19,17 but his y.p.c. has gone down in each game, though he found the endzone for the first time last week. Up this week the Texans (21st against the run)who have allowed more rushing touchdowns this year than anyother team.
21) Ricky Williams – MIA – RB
Williams out rushed and outscored starter Ronnie Brown after rushing for 80 yards and 3 TDs on only 9 carries in a wild game against the Saints. This week with a rematch against the Jets 11-68 yards rushing and 3 rec.for 70 yards for a 138 total yards and zero touchdowns the last time they played just in case you were wondering. Williams remains a solid RB2 play even if he is the back up in Miami.
22) LeSean McCoy – PHI – RB
McCoy is likely to get the nod as Brian Westbrook is on track to miss the game because of having a concussion. McCoy’s only touchdown of the season came as a starter in place of Westbrook in Week 3 against the Chiefs. Shady is going to have a tougher time against the Giants this week, as the G-Men check in as the 18th ranked run defense allowing an average of 103 yards a game on the ground. He will have more value in P.P.R. formats as the Eagles look to rectify the kinks that have appeared in their pass game in the last two weeks.
23) Knowshon Moreno – DEN – RB
Moreno’s value continues to be sapped by sharing time with Buckhalter who continues to be the more effective back despite less touches. To make matters worse the Broncos catch the Ravens coming off a bye, and will more than likely be focused on stopping the run after getting torched in back to back games with both Cedric Benson, and A.P. both running for well over 100 yards. Moreno has very limited value this week but due to the bye week rates as a flex play.
24) Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG – RB
As reported in the Jacobs snippet, Bradshaw was diagnosed with a cracked bone in his foot, and if that wasn’t enough an old ankle injury from college has flared up. Bradshaw will continue to be a decent flex play until he is no longer able to play on his foot.
25) Julius Jones – SEA – RB
Jones value continues to be one of the most intriguing side stories in fantasy football. Despite rushing for a total of 200 yards in two games, the other games have been head scratchers never having rushed the ball more than 13 times as the Seahawks coaches abandon the run early and never go back to regardless of blowout win, close game, or blowout loss. The offensive line has been effected by the loss of Walter Jones who this week was placed on the I.R.. The injury to Hasselbeck has not helped matters either, it will be interesting to see which Julius emerges coming out of the bye week. Buy low, or a droppable?
26) Correll Buckhalter – DEN – RB
Buckhalter’s play continues to make the Broncos give him touches as a change of pace, but the fact of the matter is though his touches have been limited he has been the more explosive, and effective back despite being in a 65/35 split.
27) Justin Fargas – OAK – RB
Fargas has outplayed Michael Bush since returning from injury and is the starter as McFadden continues to be out with an injury. Fargas is actually a viable option this week against the porous run defense of the Chargers (ranked 28th 138 yards a game allowed on the ground)and would make a decent RB2/Flex play then again being the best offensive Raider in fantasy is like being the smartest idiot, a dubious honor at best.
28) Mike Bell – NOR – RB
Bell continues to cause Pierre Thomas owners to panic as he continues to take touches away, and is appearing to be the closer despite my rant last week to the contrary. Bell’s success is tied directly to Thomas’ success.
29) Jonathan Stewart – CAR – RB
Stewart disappeared in a game against the Bills last week accounting for only 45 yards on 11 total touches. His value is in flux as the poor passing game has affected the entire offenses fantasy value. Things don’t get easier with a game against the Cards and their number one ranked run defense. Arizona might be strong at stopping the run, but are very susceptible to a aerial attack as they rank just 30th against the pass.
30) Tim Hightower – ARI – RB
Despite Hightower in danger of losing the starting job to Wells after fumbling away an opportunity last week, Hightower continues to have more value in this pass first attack as the back with the better hands, and also being the goal line back. Until he loses one of those roles, he will continue to be ranked ahead of Wells, unless of course the Cards decide to actually run the ball more than 20 times in a game then it will be a different story.
31) Beanie Wells – ARI – RB
I didn’t say how much lower Wells would be ranked behind Hightower, I just said Beanie would be ranked lower. Wells is starting to emerge as an everydown threat, and if he can prove that he has cured his case of fumblitis and gain the trust of the staff, Wells value will markedly increase and become a borderline RB2, but until all of those coulds, and shoulds happen he is barely a flex spot at best, yes he could be a boom or bust guy this week against the Panthers and if I were desperate I would play him against the 26th ranked against the run Panthers. Which brings me to my RANT OF THE WEEK: There have been a lot of questions about his value this week and a ton of questions about whether he should be started over other players that have a definitive role and have produced on a consistent basis throughout the year. First I/WE have loved his upside since the pre-season, and going as far as four of our five writers listing him as the Rookie RB that will have the biggest impact this year (I had Knowshon, not much better) Wells has had a few things that have kept him off the field as a starter and cut into his potential playing time,and they are all on him. Reporting late to camp and missing valuable teaching, having fumblitis, being dinged up, and having worse hands than Hightower are all things that have slowed down his progress. The good news is despite all of this he continues to be on track to steal the job away from Hightower. I get the entire appeal of the sexy pick up, and the waiver wire pick up that will really pay off. Wells will probably pay off big time at some point this season, and yes he should absolutely be owned in every league and format but he needs more than 12-15 touches in a game to meet the ever mounting expectations that owners have for him. The Rant of the Week is brought to you by: Fantasy Football Brothers Check us out Monday November 1st for an exciting new change coming to the Brotherhood.
32) Darren Sproles – SDC – RB
Sproles has more value in P.P.R. and Return league formats, but with a game against the Raiders this week he could be a sneaky flex play.
33) Willis McGahee – BAL – RB
McGahee’s outstanding play came just as fast as it went. McGahee emerged as the early hot hand and made the most of his touches scoring 6 touchdowns in the first three games. Coming out of the bye week it will be interesting to see what his role is since the Ravens began to go away from him, Baltimore began to lose, and yes I know Rice has been a monster, but my point is the high flying offense has begun to effect the defense.
34) Felix Jones – DAL – RB
Jones appears to have surpassed Tashard Choice as the number two back on the depth chart, and Jones receives a bump in Return yardage leagues as he has inherited the role of main return man with the injury to Allen Rossum.
35) Jamal Lewis – CLE – RB
Lewis has had little value all year having rushed for over 100 yards only once this season and he has yet to find the endzone. Compounding the problem is the air attack or the lack there of to be more specific. How this team became worse is beyond me, but ladies and gentlemen witness the powers of the magical Mangini.
36) Shonn Greene – NYJ – RB
I could have saved my Rant of the Week for Greene because it applies to him as well. Yes he should be owned in all leagues that have ten teams or more, and yes he will now get some carries because Leon Washington has a broken leg and is gone for the year. Just have tempered expectations until he produces, which is a possibility since Thomas Jones has disappeared against every opponent with a decent run defense.
37) Michael Bush – OAK – RB
Bush has lost playing time to the re-emergence of Huggy Bear, Bush is probably the best back in Oakland, but he has yet to play like that and his demotion to second string is a testament to his play.
38) Fred Jackson – BUF – RB
Jackson is quickly becoming nothing but an after thought even as Marshawn Lynch and the rest of the offense struggle.
39) Jason Snelling – ATL – RB
Snelling did a decent job as a replacement for the injured Jerious Norwood. All he did was rush for 68 yards in the blow out loss to the Cowboys.
40) LenDale White – TEN – RB
In an earlier portion of my ranks I briefly mentioned our pre-season combined ranks and I had LenDale as the RB that would be drafted to low, man was I wrong on that one. White has virtually disappeared along with the entire offense of the Titans. A switch at QB might not be what the doctor ordered but White will have no value when the Titans can’t even get to the goal line, thus killing the goal line backs value. I know White is hoping the V.Y. era is more productive than the Kerry Collins era.
41) Reggie Bush – NOR – RB
I wrote last week that Bush has been almost all but removed from what his fortay was, and that is catching the ball, but he seems to be reinventing himself into a goal line back having scored two touchdowns in the last two games.
42) Jerome Harrison – CLE – RB
Harrison has had few opportunities since the return of Lewis compounding the problem is the offense is beyond terrible, it Raideresque.
43) Chris Brown – HOU – RB
Brown’s carries have been slowly increasing, and he seems to be earning some semblance of a closer role, as the Texans appear to be losing confidence in Slaton’s ability to keep the ball of the turf.
44) Chester Taylor – MIN – RB
Taylor continues to be a P.P.R. bump guy as his carries are becoming less and less, and his receiving yardage is almost double his rushing yardage.
45) Tashard Choice – DAL – RB
Choice has been relegated back to third string, but its a shame the Cowboys can’t take advantage of their plethora of talent at the running back spot.
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