Posted by Bill in Fantasy Advice,Running Backs on Oct 23rd 2009 and last modified on Oct 24th 2009. (Print This)
Week 7 brings us to the section of the NFL schedule where the bye weeks are bigger with six teams off this Sunday. Owners are scrambling to piece together lineups, and make up points that will be lost with four of the top ten point producing backs out. Though there are less games this week there are plenty of potential interesting stories being set up for Sunday. DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart face off against Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson, and in the spirit of halloween the battle of scary quarterbacks, and even scarier run defenses. Expect a ton of points for all involved. What will the Jets Thomas Jones do for an encore performance against the Raiders after torching the Bills last weekend for over 200+ yards rushing. The NFL is in London this weekend, and Laurence Maroney has a chance to make a huge impression on Europe with a prime grade A choice match up against Tampa Bay who has allowed an average of 171 yards a game to opposing backs.
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1) Adrian Peterson – MIN – RB
Peterson comes into Sunday in the middle of a tough three game stretch, after facing the Ravens last week, he gets to face the Steelers this week. A.P. tweaked his ankle and missed a portion of the game, but returned and finished the day with 166 yards total offense including 143 on the ground against a great run stopping team, proving the age old adage true. Always start your studs.
2) Michael Turner – ATL – RB
Turner was shut down by a tough Bears defense last week but saved the day with a touchdown, he has scored at least one touchdown in his last four games. Look for the “Burner” to do some damage to a poor Dallas run defense this week. Keep an eye on Turner since he has missed practice twice this week already with a chest injury, and Norwood isn’t much healthier, be ready to cue up RB Jason Snelling in case of emergency.
3) DeAngelo Williams – CAR – RB
We predicted last week that the next two weeks were make or break for Williams’ season with tasty matchups of Tampa, and Buffalo upcoming on the schedule, he responded with 152 yards rushing and two TDs against the Buccaneers. This week he gets another shot to do some more damage against a completely inept Bills run defense that ranks dead last. The Bills gave up over 300 yards rushing to the Jets. To make matters worse for the Bills their starting QB (Trent Edwards) is likely out making the Bills one-dimensional
4) Cedric Benson – CIN – RB
Benson was held to a season low 44 yards rushing last week in a game that turned into a shootout forcing the Bengals to abandon the run in the second half but the day was saved for owners with a touchdown. Benson has got the “Revenge Game” on tap this week against his former Chicago team who also happens to be the owners of a very stingy defense. Good run defenses have been unable to stop the bruiser on Sundays. Always keep Benson in your lineup.
5) Ronnie Brown – MIA – RB
During the offseason Brown came out and said he wanted to be considered one of the elite backs in football. Well Ronnie is on his way to achieving that goal this season ranking in the top ten in rushing yards and touchdowns. The Dolphins have a tough game this week against a surprisingly tough Saints defense. The good news is the Dolphins have had two weeks to prepare for attacking New Orleans, also add in the fact that the game will be in Miami. A big game against this stingy defense wouldn’t be a shocker, I’m expecting it.
6) Ryan Grant – GRE – RB
Grant was fed the ball 24 times against the Lions last Sunday, and was unable to eclipse the 100 yard barrier. This week the Packers get the Browns and their 30th ranked run-defense. Green Bay will put the Browns away early this week and give Grant the ball all day, I’m expecting a hundred yard day, and snap his three game touchdown-lessstreak this week, and as an added bonus there cupboard is empty behind him, with the other backs banged up, hence the reclamation project of Ahman Green.
Welcome Back! Frank Gore returns just in time to take advantage of Houston's horrific run-defense.
7) Frank Gore – SFO – RB
Gore returns this week after missing three games with an ankle injury. RB Glenn Coffee turned out to be a less than suitable replacement for the injured Gore and is better situated to play a complimentary role. Up this week are the Texans and their 24th ranked run defense. The Texans can be run on all day as long as their vaunted pass game is stymied, the Niners are not built to get into a shootout with Houston. The 49ers would be wise to control the clock running the rock with Gore, and keeping Schaub and Co. of the field.
8) Matt Forte – CHI – RB
Forte’s stock continues to tumble as the second year back continues to struggle running the rock. A 3.5 y.p.c. is no laughing matter, or his one touchdown, he is ranked 24th in rushing yards, and I would like to point out that even Larry Johnson is ahead of him in rushing yards. The Bears have the Bengals this Sunday with their 11th ranked run defense. Cincinnati has only had only one back this season rush for over a hundred yards against their defense, and if you are playing along at home, you are right if you said the Browns’ Jerome Harrison
9) Steven Jackson – STL – RB
Jackson failed to live up to my expectations and score his first touchdown of the season, despite rushing for a personal season low of 50 yards rushing, Jackson more than made up for it with 6 receptions for 78 yards. There were crazy rumors of the Rams trying to trade S.Jack, but they proved to be just that rumors. Up this week the Colts and their 14th ranked run defense, which also marks the debut of the Colts S Bob Sanders, a run stopping dynamo.
10) Pierre Thomas – NOR – RB
The Fantasy pundits have been telling owners all week that Thomas is splitting carries 50/50, losing goal line touches, or that Bell is the closer. I say the proof is in the pudding. Fact of the matter is despite having 15 carries each doesn’t mean they actually split the carries 50/50 when ten of Bell’s carries came when the game was well out of reach. While both did get some goal line looks, and Bell was able to convert on his, while Thomas wasn’t able to do so at the end of the half getting stopped cold at the plane of the goal-line. The Saints get the Dolphins with their 5th ranked run defense this week as well as coming off a bye. We are keeping an eye on this alleged committee, but I think there’s too much being read into.
11) Thomas Jones – NYJ – RB
Jones lit up the brutal Bills run-defense last week for 210 yards and one touchdown, but looking into those numbers most of those yards came from his two long runs a 71 yard long touchdown scamper, and a 64 yard run. Just something for owners to be aware of Jones begins to falter again owners will know that his big rushing days have come against brutal defense, and their was a long run broken skewing his numbers. Tommy Jones will get to further skew his numbers this week against the hapless Raiders and their 28th ranked run-defense.
12) LaDainian Tomlinson – SDC – RB
LDT is coming off his best game (70 rushing yards 100 total) against a good Denver defense. The Chargers schedule lightens up here a little bit, and now may be the best time to buy Tomlinson low. San Diego faces two teams in the top 10 in run defense the rest of the way. They face the Broncos again week 11 and then the lowly Titans week 16. Starting with Kansas City this week, and then Oakland the following week could be the perfect launching pad needed for a resurgence for the onetime all-world back.
13) Joseph Addai – IND – RB
Addai has a great match up against the Rams and their 26th ranked run-defense this week after coming off a bye week. The Colts have thrown the ball a ton this year, though if you own Addai in a P.P.R. format he has made up for the lack of rushing yards with 26 receptions. Addai’s yards per carry are a little on the low side (3.5) and he has been unable to make any headway getting out of splitting duties with rookie Donald Brown. Addai has saved owners this season with his four total touchdowns, and is on pace to finish with around 12 total, but at this pace he will finish with around 700 yards and less than 200 carries.
14) Marshawn Lynch – BUF – RB
Lynch is getting his touches with over twenty in each of his last two games. This week Lynch could be in store for a big work load facing the Panthers (29th Ranked run-def.)with the possibility of QB Trent Edwards out, and Ryan Fitzpatrick likely taking the reigns. If Edwards is out, it would be wise to run the ball to take pressure off of Fitzpatrick, and keep the ball out of the run first Panthers who will likely run the ball all day on the Bills.
15) Rashard Mendenhall – PIT – RB
Mendenhall is the number one guy in Pittsburgh and has responded with four touchdowns in the last three games. Up this week the Vikings (9th in run-def.)and this will be the first tough run defense the second year player out of Illinois has had to face as the starter.How he does this weekend could give owners a good idea if Mendenhall is a long term solution and a RB1 or could he end up eventually losing carries to Willie Parker.
16) Brian Westbrook – PHI – RB
Westbrook is getting healthier every week which is a good thing after losing a terrible game to the Raiders last weekend for Eagles fans. As fantasy owners Westbrook has been much more productive and should continue to keep McCoy off the field. Despite rushing for 50 yards and having a 8.3 y.p.c the Eagles idiotically abandoned the run against a bad run stopping team. He finished the day with 140 total yards mostly coming on his 9 receptions. Up this week the chaotic Redskins and their 22nd ranked run stopping defense.
17) Laurence Maroney – NEP – RB
Maroney might be the waiver steal of the week as he is on pace for a potentially big game. With Sammy Morris on track to miss the game, Maroney will likely be the lead back with Faulk taking the 3rd down, and passing situation snaps. The Pats have the Bucs in London this Sunday, expect New England to build a quick lead, and then run the ball to close the game.
18) Jonathan Stewart – CAR – RB
Stewart quietly has himself a great game last week rushing for 110 yards, and added a touchdown.Stewart has been the more effective back, but D.Will continues to garner the majority of touches. Stewart finds himself ranked as a RB2 with a tasty matchup against the Bills
19) Ahmad Bradshaw – NYG – RB
Bradshaw has surpassed Jacobs in the RB ranks department as the lightning half of the duo has consistently out performed the hammer role that Jacobs plays. Having scored three touchdowns in the last two games has made Bradshaw a viable running back despite the lack of touches.
20) Steve Slaton – HOU – RB
Slaton continues to struggle running the ball, but continues to save owners week in and week out with his receiving totals. Slaton has caught for more yardage than he has run for so far this season. His 3.0 yards per carry are the biggest tell tale sign that there is something wrong. Though he is on pace to finish with about 1,400 total yards rushing and receiving he has not been enjoyable for owners this year. P.P.R. league owners have an easier time swallowing his terrible season thus far.
21) Clinton Portis – WAS – RB
Portis has more injury issues than the New England Journal of Medicine and they are all on his right leg. Portis will likely play because he has been toughing out injuries all year. Portis’ status needs to be monitored in case of a last minute scratch. Washington is in complete chaos with H.C. Jim Zorn losing play calling duties, so let’s put things into perspective. Washington showed no faith in Jason Campbell, and tried to move him, and now the coach has been completely undermined as he has been replaced calling plays. You thought Al Davis was meddlesome.
22) Marion Barber – DAL – RB
MBIII and the Cowboys return after a bye week, he reported on his blog this week that his “quad is no longer a problem”. We will see. Expect Barber to start and get the goal line work, but what Choice’s role is will be the interesting part.
23) Brandon Jacobs – NYG – RB
Most Jacobs owners drafted him with the notion that you would forfeit rushing yards for touchdowns, but having one touchdown so far this season has become a nightmare for owners that drafted him in the first, or early second rounds. Jacobs had his lowest yardage totals last Sunday while also suffering an injury though he was able to return. This week the Cardinals and their number one ranked rushing defense look to stop the big guy.
24) Tashard Choice – DAL – RB
Choice was very effective while getting playing time with MBIII, and Felix Jones both hurt. This week Dallas faces the 24th ranked run-defense of the Falcons. Will there be enough touches to go around for the backs not named Barber?
25) Cadillac Williams – TAM – RB
Cadillac had a decent week last week for a team that is in a offensive crisis. This week the Buccaneers travel across the Atlantic and face the Patriots in London. Though the Pats have been susceptible in the run game, the Bucs won’t get a chance if the Patriots jump to an early lead.
26) Tim Hightower – ARI – RB
Hightower continues to get the goal line work scoring his third touchdown of the season last week. The pass happy Cardinals will continue to utilize Hightower’s hands where most of his value comes from, especially in P.P.R. leagues as he is on pace to finish the season with 90 receptions. John L. Williams, and Larry Centers numbers.
27) Larry Johnson – KAN – RB
L.J. continues to get his touches and made the most of them last week rushing for a season high 83 yards. Johnson and the Chiefs face off with the Chargers this week and their 27th ranked run defense. The Kansas City offense has improved little by little this season, pulling off an ugly win against Washington last week, I’m calling for a L.J. score this week, I have to get it right eventually, right?
28) Donald Brown – IND – RB
Brown has played well enough to continue to split carries and duties with Addai. This week with St. Louis on tap, the rookie could get a lot of carries against the Rams as the Colts will be sitting on a large lead.
29) Ricky Williams – MIA – RB
Williams has been worthy of a RB2 play all year long. Depending on your league scoring format he is a top 20 scoring RB. He is on pace to finish with 1,000 yards rushing and about 8-10 total touchdowns not bad for a late round handcuff draft pick.
30) Justin Fargas – OAK – RB
Fargas took the majority of carries after Bush got banged up rushing for 87 yards though a repeat performance will be tougher to come by against the Jets this week.
31) Leon Washington – NYJ – RB
Like Ricky Williams, Washington has been productive despite his lack of touches, though his zero touchdowns so far this season have been very surprising. Washington is a threat with the ball in hands and I know I said it last week but how do they not get him in space with their lack of playmakers?
32) Jamal Lewis – CLE – RB
11 carries for 22 yards and 14 touches for 37 yards against the Steelers was a nice follow up performance after his 100 yard game the week before. Look for the Packers to shut him down again this week.
33) Mike Bell – NOR – RB
Bell got 15 carries last week the majority of them coming when the game was well in hand. Bell did get a touchdown as it appeared the Giants game was an open audition for goal-line back duties.
34) Kevin Faulk – NEP – RB
Faulk will look to receive more touches this week as the Patriot running backs are dropping like flies. The 3rd down specialist will get more action and earning an even larger bump in P.P.R. formats.
35) Fred Jackson – BUF – RB
Jackson continues to get his carries despite being second fiddle to Lynch, though he has been coming off the field in passing situations. Jackson should be a decent play this weekend with a matchup against the run stopping challenged Panthers.
36) Reggie Bush – NOR – RB
Bush scored his second touchdown of the season, on what has been a disappointing season statistically speaking. His receptions are down and he is on pace to finish the season with a career low of around 50 receptions. Bush’s limitations as a running back have always been acceptable with the chance of making up the yardage through the air. Now that his total touches are declining his value will be on the bench until this trend changes.
37) Willie Parker – PIT – RB
With Parker officially demoted to second string, he needs to earn more touches, for any attempt to get his starting job back.
38) LeSean McCoy – PHI – RB
I warned owners last week that McCoy would be getting less touches and last week he had only 5 carries for 13 yards against the Raiders. Westbrook will continue to get healthy and with that, McCoy will see the field less.
39) Jerome Harrison – CLE – RB
Harrison is probable with the flu as the entire team is dealing with the illness. If Harrison plays the Browns would be wise to take advantage of his all around skills, but then again its the Browns.
40) BenJarvus Green-Ellis – NEP – RB
The lawfirm could see considerable action if the Pats get up big on Tampa.
41) Darren Sproles – SDC – RB
Sproles could get some action against the woeful Chiefs, and could make a decent RB2 play for desperate owners dealing with byes or injuries.
42) Beanie Wells – ARI – RB
Though Wells is the better back, he plays in a pass first offense and loses his goal line touches to Hightower. Wells had a season high 12 carries, and also recorded his first reception of the season. Wells continues to have zero value until he wins the goal line role.
43) Chris Brown – HOU – RB
Brown was called on late to close out the game against the Bengals, and responded with 45 yards rushing.
44) Jason Snelling – ATL – RB
Snelling’s value is tied directly to Turner and his playing status. Jerious Norwood is already out and that would make Snelling second string. If Turner is out jump on Snelling, he makes a great RB2 start Sunday against the Cowboys
45) Michael Bush – OAK – RB
Bush lost playing time due to an injury last Sunday. He needs to become more productive or he will play himself off the field by the time Darren McFadden returns.
46) Derrick Ward – TAM – RB
Ward has become the clear number two in Tampa, but in this offense he has little fantasy value.
47) Jamaal Charles – KAN – RB
Charles’ playing time actually diminished in a game that K.C. was in control of the entire time. This speaks volumes about where Charles really stands, L.J.’s starting role and playing time are safe for now.
48) Mewelde Moore – PIT – RB
With Mendenhall, and Parker ahead of him, his carries are down, and he is entering the droppables category pending an injury to the starters.
49) Chester Taylor – MIN – RB
Taylor has little value this week unless A.P.’s ankle is worse then reported. Taylor won’t find the field unless there is a blow out either way.
50) Bernard Scott – CIN – RB
Scott didn’t get a touch on Sunday in the close game. Expect more of the same this week.
51) Felix Jones – DAL – RB
Jones returns after missing two games, and is now third string behind Marion Barber and Tashard Choice. Jones made the most of his limited touches when healthy, but he is a wait and see until roles shake out.
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