Posted by Sean in Fantasy Advice on Aug 27th 2009 (Print This)
The RBBC (Running Back By Committee) has changed the game. The extinction of the every-down back and the formulation of specialists, ie: third down, goal-line, between the 20′s runners – has led to the plummeting of thoroughbred talent. There are some true work-horses left, but unless you have a top-5 pick, you are not likely to land one. Wide receivers have penetrated the first round. Elite wide-outs provide better fantasy value than the questionable runners toward the end of round one. If you pass on drafting a back with your first and even your second round picks, here are some RB2′s that could produce RB1 stats in ‘09.
Kevin Smith
There were concerns around Smith being able to hold up to the physicality of the pro game after a carry-heavy senior season in college, but Smith appeared to get stronger as his rookie season went on.
Smith progressed while his team regressed and was one of the only bright spots coming out of the Motor City. Detroit has received somewhat of a stimulus package in the form of QB Matt Stafford, TE Brandon Pettigrew, WR Derrick Williams (sleeper),WR Bryant Johnson, and RB Maurice Morris, but failed to revamp a struggling offensive line. Maurice Morris is not a stiff. He beat out Julius Jones in Seattle. He’ll get carries from time to time, but shouldn’t threaten Smiths starting role. Smith proved he could play on all downs. He was second on the team in receptions, catching 39passes for 286 yards. He also made good on his short yardage opportunities.
Ryan Grant
Grant is a good back, not a great back. He’s not the fastest or the flashiest player, but he’ll get you solid stats in ‘09. The maturation of Aaron Rodgers will have the Green Bay offense in high gear. Running lanes will be open and scoring opportunities will be provided. The knock on Grant was his lack of receiving skills, but pre-season play suggests that this has been remedied. Grant has remained on the field despite down or distance. If he can sure up his pass-catching skills and reclaim 3rd down duties, Grant has a solid opportunity to put up RB1-like numbers at a low-end RB2 price. His lack of rushing touchdowns was likely an aberration last year and that is another reason why his value has taken a big hit. Look for those numbers to go up.
Ronnie Brown
Ricky Williams has already begun to look at life-after-football opportunities. Brown is extremely versatile and is one of the better receiving backs in the league. Durability is an issue, but fans are hoping for a return to early ‘07 form. Miami’s offensive line is impressive. Their passing attack is just good enough to be respected, but not good enough to be relied too heavily upon. Rookie Pat White has been rumored to be struggling in the Wildcat formations. The Dolphins were the most successful team to implement the new offensive package. Brown could retain his duties heading the NFL’s latest craze.
Darren McFadden:
The Dark Knight “The night is darkest just before dawn!”
Oakland is truly the “Black Hole” of talent. With a quarterback already labeled a bust, and an unproven receiving cast – look for the Raiders to once again rely heavily on the run. He needs to prove that he’s not soft, after his over-hyped rookie season was lost to nicks and dings. He does run high, but he runs fast. His pass catching ability will have him staying in on third downs. But when you talk about BOOM of BUST, you think of McFadden. There may not be a player in your Fantasy draft who has so much opportunity to absolutely explode, but could just as likely completely flop. He’s a gamble no doubt. His struggles last season has his stock pretty low. He’d be risky as your RB2 but is definitely worth the investment if you can land him as your RB3.
Ray Rice
The Baltimore backfield experienced a lot of traffic in the 08 season, with LeRon McClain, Willis McGahee, and rookie Ray Rice all sharing carries. No one player solidified his role as “the man” leading to frustration amongst fantasy owners everywhere. Surprisingly enough it was the over-sized McClain that turned heads and became an out of the blue fantasy contributor. But McClain’s time as a running back are over as he transitions back to a more traditional full back role.
Willis McGahee’s work ethic and drive have been questioned throughout his pro career. After a breakout rookie performance in Buffalo, we have all waited to see if that caliber of player will return. But McGahee has not matched his rookie season potential. Coming into 09 McGahee is was rehabilitating from an ankle injury, opening the door for Rice to impress. Ray Rice looks to have the greatest chance of making a fantasy impact in 09. He provides the receiving ability that the other Ravens runners lack, and is a guarantee to lock up third down responsibilities. Rice showed up to OTA’s sporting some extra muscle and thickness. Rice should prove that he is more than a third down back, and that he is strong and big enough to take between the tackle carries. He currently has been taking first team snaps and is reported to have impressed the coaching staff. Baltimore loves to run the rock and led the league in rushing attempts per game in 08. Joe Flacco is still a young quarterback, and continues to lack explosive receiving options. Look for Baltimore to continue to rely heavily on the run, and look for Ray Rice to be the higher recipient of carries in the Raven’s backfield. If he can land some goal-line looks – WATCH OUT!
Pierre Thomas
Saved the best of this group for last. After the release of Deuce McAllister by the New Orleans Saints, many thought that the team would continue to neglect their deficits on defense and draft a rookie runner with their first pick in 09. The Saints did the smart thing and selected the top defensive back in this years draft – Malcom Jenkins. New Orleans continued with this pattern throughout the draft, staying on the defensive side of the ball. This is good news for Pierre Thomas who’s end of the season hot streak will be allowed to continue into 09. 08 makes it two years in a row that Thomas has come up big down the stretch and made huge contributions for owners fighting for a fantasy title. Reggie Bush is a specialist, not a between the tackles runner. Pierre made the most of his opportunities last year and has solidified a potent role in the highest scoring offense in the NFL. Thomas showcased his versatility this season by earning tough ground in short-yardage situations, running between the tackles, displaying ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and contributions in the return game.