Twitter Updates

Fantasy Football Brothers delves into their annual Rookie Running Back Report. Yes it is only our second year, but if I do say so myself I think I nailed it last year. That leads me to this year. I have struggled with this assignment this year. There are no show stoppers, or speed merchants or even can’t miss products. There are no Forte’s, Chris Johnson’s or even Slaton’s, or McFadden’s. Last year was an aberration statistically with all of the high performing RBs. The rookie backs were what they always were before last year,average, some really good, but most not ready for prime time. So for everything that goes up, something must come down. Despite the NFL moving to the gut wrenching R.B.B.C. and making it even easier for a RB to hit the thousand yard mark which for anyone that cares is only 62.5 yards a game, I hate to say that this year there are not that many potential candidates.  All across America fantasy owners are looking over their draft kits, and planning for their drafts. Fantasy Football Brothers takes a deep look into this years rookies, starting with the Running Back position. Fantasy owners are all chomping at the bit wanting to find a diamond in the rough or the next can’t miss rookie prospect like Matt Forte. The consensus is this year’s rookie class as a whole is weaker than year’s past. The problem is that rookies usually don’t pan out they way we expect. Some running backs are just going to be busts like Cedric Benson, before eventaully finding his way, others get buried in the depth chart. Dynasty League players know exactly what I am talking about. Very few rookies are handed the keys their rookie year. RB Matt Forte says hello. Most play a complimentary role in their first year like RB Jonathan Stewart unless of course the starter goes down, say hi RB Steve Slaton… What makes things even harder is the NFL’s current trend of splitting carries. The days of twenty rushing attempts are going the way of the DoDo bird. The chances of getting a thousand yard rookie running back are very slim. Look at the numbers in the graph below. The chance of drafting a thousand yard back is slim actually very slim especially in a twelve team league and that is because on average there is only one and a third thousand yard rushing per season…. So for every three seasons you will have a year where there are two one-thousand yard rookie running backs. The odds are not good of drafting that special back even though you go into a draft looking for the sexy rookie running back, but buyer beware the odds are against you that the rookie running back will not pan out. That being said we will give you as much information on the rookie running back class and help you find the rookie that will have a monster year and win your league. Let’s weed out the trash and find the cash!

The Thousand Yard RB Candidates

1) Donald Brown – IND – RB
RB Donald Brown was drafted in 1st round to Indianapolis. Brown could not have gone to a better team. Brown’s skill set matches up perfectly for what the Colts do with their running backs. More quick than fast, great vision, and soft hands. Brown is in a great situation. A starting RB that is constantly dinged up ahead of him in RB Joseph Addai, an offense that loves to get their RB’s in space, and their is offensive talent galore to take the pressure off of whom ever is running the ball.

Brown offers excellent value especially knowing that Addai will get injured at some point, and the Colts seem more comfortable splitting carries, thought not necessarily a 50-50 split, probably closer to 60-40

2) Knowshon Moreno – DEN – RB
A year ago Knowshon was being touted as a Heisman candidate, and his team was the consensus number one ranked team in the country. Things didn’t exactly pan out for the Bulldogs. Knowshon had a great year, and showed enough talent to be the first running back taken in the draft. Knowshon went to Denver whom as you might know by now, have more than a few RBs. Knowshon is the most talented of everyone in the stable, with decent speed, good lateral quickness and amazing vision. A pre-season injury (m.c.l. sprain)has derailed Moreno from making more progress,but was the best back in Denver before his injury. Moreno was looking like he would start and be on the field for 1st and 2nd downs with RB LaMont Jordan grabbing 3rd down responsibilities. The knee injury should curb early season expectations, and probably lower his current A.D.P. but Moreno should rebound nicely, and is a solid draft pick anytime after the 4th round.

3) LeSean McCoy – PHI – RB
LeSean “Shady” McCoy was a one man show at Pitt. McCoy was utilized everywhere on the field, and the opposing defenses knew it but still couldn’t stop him. McCoy is another RB that is similar to the guys above. More quick than fast, good vision, some shake when needed and spectacular hands. McCoy is almost a RB Brian Westbrook clone and was drafted as the oft injured star’s heir apparent. If McCoy can show some toughness running inside,protect the Qb when asked to, the sky’s the limit. Westbrook is often banged up, and the Eagles have been in desperate need for someone to take the pressure off of the do everything star. The Eagles offense will purr like a kitten, and McCoy has a ton of potential to make some noise in that explosive offense. McCoy should be drafted as Westbrook’s handcuff at the least.

4) Chris Wells – ARI – RB
Chris “Beanie” Wells was a monster when healthy at Ohio State. A huge back at 6’1″ 235 lbs. with some decent speed. Wells is a pounder who runs upright sometimes, but does have some lateral moves. The problem is when Wells is healthy. I had Beanie ranked as the number 1 Rookie RB after the draft. Based on his size, speed, strength, a pass first offense that would could have huge running lanes and only RB Tim Hightower in front of him on the depth chart. What’s not to love? Oh yeah the chronic injury thing, fast forward to pre-season and Wells has fallen behind Hightower in the depth charts, and should make his pre-season debut in week 3 of the 4 game exhibition slate. He has his work cut out for him. If the former Buckeye is unable to unseat Hightower. Look for at the least goalline/short yardage looks while occasionally spelling Hightower until he can solidify himself and show he is an everydown back when healthy. After all the Cardinals did not draft Wells with the intention of him playing part time. Do not reach on him due to his injury history, but he could and should provide great value if selected after the 4th round.

5) James Davis – CLE – RB
RB James Davis was a stud while at Clemson until the arrival of RB C.J.Spiller who cut into his carries and workload. Davis possesses decent speed, good change of direction, and can get the extra tough yards. Davis has landed in an ideal spot going to Cleveland. A team that is in the midst of a QB controversy, that no matter whom ever wins the starting job, will likely being asked to hand the ball off a ton this year. The offensive line is above average and RB Jamal Lewis appears to be on his last legs. All that is holding Davis back from at least securing the number two spot behind Lewis is RB Jerome Harrison who is starting to become RB Jerrious Norwood JR. (Translation: A back the teases fantasy owners year in and year out with a ridiculous yards per carry and then doesn’t deliver after being drafted 5 rounds too high)Davis makes the list as my sleeper thousand yard back(RB Steve Slaton was the honoary last year)

6) Glenn Coffee – SFO – RB
I initially hated Coffee going to the Niners, I thought he was a bust. But after watching him in a few games I’m amazed by his quickness and speed. Though on the lean side, Coffee has shown the ability to run hard, and has fought for extra yards, both things I thought he wouldn’t and couldn’t do in the N.F.L.. Coffee has all the makings of being the perfect complement to Gore more physical running style. Coffee so far has  looked the part of becoming the ideal change of pace back in San Franciscos new run first offensive philosophy. The 49ers will look to run the ball this year so there will be plenty of carries to go around. Coffee could be an excellent handcuff to Gore owners, considering Gore’s injury history, and would be a steal in the 9th or 10th rounds

Stay tuned for Part 2 dropping this weekend.

Aaron Brown, Arian Foster, Bernard Scott, Cedric Peerman, Chris Ogbonnaya, Chris Wells, Devin Moore, Donald Brown, Glenn Coffee, Herb Donaldson, Ian Johnson, James Davis, Javarris Williams, Javon Ringer, Knowshon Moreno, LaRod Stephens-Howling, LeSean McCoy, Mike Goodson, P.J. Hill, Rashad Jennings, Shonn Greene, Tyrell Sutton