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With the preseason underway and players getting acclimated to playing in the NFL we have been able to get a small idea of what we might expect out of this years rookie class.  With the overall success of last years rookie quarter backs Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, this years class enters the NFL with very high expectations.   The fact is that maybe only one will offer any type of fantasy value this year.  The learning curve for the position is just to steep.  The exciting thing about this class is that three were drafted in hopes of becoming franchise quarter backs.  If history is any indication, and it usually is, two out of  the three will flame out and never reach there potential or lofty expectations that come with the position.  Whats even more exciting is that one will probably emerge faster than anyone of us ever thought.  That’s what makes football so great.  The situation a quarter back is drafted into often matters more than the skill set that they possess.  So many times before have high draft picks been unable to perform in the NFL.  For every Matt Ryan there are a dozen Akili Smiths and Ryan Leafs, and we all remember that psycho.  If a team doesn’t hit on these guys it can ruin a franchise for years.  The same can be said for dynasty owners.  This breakdown of the rookie class should help you make informed decisions on draft day.

1) Matthew Stafford – DET – QB
Detroit selected Stafford with the first pick in Aprils draft and paid him handsomely. The hope is that he can finally pull the Lions out of the NFL s basement. That’s a lot to ask of the former Georgia star. Stafford has all the necessary tools to be a successful NFL quarterback. He has a rocket arm and can make all the throws on the field. He is poised, mechanically sound and displays very good foot work. Most importantly he has the awareness and ability to read an NFL defense. The problem is, that he is so confident in his arm that he slings the ball all over the field. He will often make an incorrect read and instead of checking down will force the ball into coverage causing turnovers. He reminds me a little of Brett Farve or Jay Cutler in that way. I just don’t know if Detroit is the right team to foster his talent and allow him to succeed. A quarterbacks success is often tied with the system and situation they get drafted into. The bad news is that the Lions finished 0-16 last year and will probably be at the bottom of the NFL ladder again this year. The good news is that they have a core of young solid skill players that could develop together and peak around the same time. Calvin Johnson is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL and second year running back Kevin Smith has all the tools to be an above average back. The Lions also invested their second 1st round pick in the ultra-talented tight end Brandon Pettigrew.

Stafford is one of only two rookie quarterbacks that could offer some fantasy value this year. I said could!  He has looked decent in pre-season play and could develop faster than previously thought. He is definitely worth drafting in all of dynasty league formats. As for re-draft leagues you should probably wait until next year or even the year after. He could win the starting job this year but we don’t think he will. He should sit behind Daunte Culpepper until he masters the offense or the fans grow tired of all the losing. The bottom line is that Stafford and the Lions are improving. So its not all bad in Detroit these days. I’m not saying they’re the second coming of the “91″ Dallas Cowboys, I’m just saying that anything is possible since Matt Millen was finally fired last year.

2) Mark Sanchez – NYJ – QB
The Jets traded up in the draft to make Sanchez the the 5th overall pick. The USC golden boy has the makeup to make it in the big city. Like I stated above, a quarterbacks success is often tied to the team and system they get drafted into. The Jets have a solid team already in place for Sanchez. The problem is that he might not be ready for the speed and complexity of the NFL game. He only started one year at USC and elected to come out early as a junior. Our early observation on Sanchez is that he has trouble picking up different coverages. He has also been observed to lock onto his primary target way too much throughout camp and in most of the pre-season games. This is something that is often seen with quarter backs who have difficulty adjusting to the speed of the game. It will probably be corrected with time and experience as he gets used to the speed, but until the game slows down for him these will no doubt lead to turnovers. With the negatives out of the way lets look at what Sanchez does well. First of all the kid is a great athlete and a natural leader. He can not only make all the necessary throws but is able to create plays with his feet. Despite the fact he locks onto his receivers he is still able to get them the ball in space. He also has the resolve or “stones” to face anything that gets thrown at him. He will probably win the starting job for the Jets and never look back. If he does win the job he will be asked to do very little this year but manage the game. This is going to allow the game to come to him and give him the opportunity to get comfortable with the overall speed. He is worth watching throughout the year in re-draft leagues as a potential bye week fill in. His true value comes in dynasty leagues. He should be drafted in all dynasty formats. The Jets lack elite talent on the outside at wide receiver but have one of the best up and coming tight ends in football with Dustin Keller. They also have arguably one the best o-lines in football and a trio of running backs to run behind it. Sanchez is a solid dynasty option with upside.

3) Josh Freeman – TAM – QB
Projected as a potential project Freeman elected to leave school early and test the NFL waters. From a business standpoint the kid made the right choice. Tampa Bay selected the talented but raw quarter back with the 17th pick in the draft. At 6’6 250lbs Freeman has the size to play the position. He displays very good physical tools and has the necessary arm strength and foot work to be a good NFL quarter back. We just wonder if he has the make up to succeed early in his career . One of the knocks on Freeman is that he is not a natural leader. Being a leader is one intangible often found in good NFL quarter backs. He has looked overwhelmed at times throughout camp and during games. The bottom line is that he’s just not ready for the NFL. If he’s is tossed in to the fire this year I wouldn’t expect to much from him. The Bucks have two quarterbacks currently ahead of him on the depth chart and that’s where they should stay. Tampa is a team in transition. They have a new GM and coaching staff who should bring the kid along slowly. They have a solid o-line and should have an above average running game. Wide receiver Antonio Bryant may have had his coming out party last year and Kellen Winslow was brought in to open up the middle of the field. Freeman would have solid options if called upon he just wouldn’t offer any week to week value.  Dynasty owners should feel free to draft and stash him.

4) Mike Teel – SEA – QB
The Seahawks selected Teel in the 6th round of the NFL draft. The Rutgers project was brought in to add depth and youth to a position that was decimated by injury last year. Reports out of Seattle are that the kids showing the same resiliency that he did in college. He does nothing great but everything well. Look for the Hawks to develop Teel and bring him along slowly. He could be groomed as Matt Hasselbecks eventual successor. Stranger things have happened.

5) Pat White – MIA – QB
The Dolphins took the West Virgina speedster in the 2nd round of the draft. Most experts called the pick a reach and felt the Dolphins could have drafted him in the 3rd or 4th round. The Phins felt they were getting the perfect weapon to run the wild cat offense. Early indications are that the experts could have been on to something. White has had difficulty picking up the system and has struggled mightily throughout camp. White has a unique blend of skills that on paper make him a potential weapon. He is very quick and has a good enough arm to make all the plays out of the wild cat formation. If White can get over his early camp mishaps the Dolphins could have something. It’s a long shot but if he is moved to wide receiver on paper he could have fantasy value as a flex or third wide out. He wouldn’t necessarily rack up points as receiver but as runner and thrower. Dynasty owners should monitor his position status closely. He could be worth a late round flier.

Josh Freeman, Mark Sanchez, Matthew Stafford, Mike Teel, Pat White