Posted by Sean in Fantasy Advice,Free Draft Kit on Aug 10th 2009 and last modified on Sep 3rd 2009. (Print This)
Here at Fantasy Football Brothers, our Free Draft Kit rolls on as we enter Wideout Week . Wide receivers are finally getting the respect they deserve from fantasy nation. Today we take a look at the intricacies of the position. Tune in all week as we “go deep”, exploring all aspects of route-runners. Stick with The Brotherhood and you’ll be end-zone dancing come seasons end.
The wide receiver position is a prima donna factory – producing some of the biggest egos the sport has ever seen. T.O., Brandon Marshall, Michael Irvin,”Ocho-Cinco” and Plaxico “Cheddar Bob” Burress are all members of this narcissistic fraternity. Heck, now a days – even Marvin Harrison is up for gun charges. Unfortunately for these outlaws there is a thing called the NFL’s Personal Conduct Policy. There is a new sheriff in town – Roger Goodell, and he is taking no Sh*t. The NFL is not the NBA or the MLB – it is a REAL sport. Football has taken over as Americas Game. The National Football League has set the standard for how a sport should be run. A tremendous effort has been made to keep the sport clean and respectable. Sorry wideouts – time to stop rehearsing your end-zone celebrations.
First Round Wide Receivers: The First Round was once completely dominated by runners. Times have changed. The RBBC has super-saturated the position leaving few true workhorses. With the majority of teams moving to a time-share style of running the ball, the quantity of runners has sky-rocketed, but the quality has been compromised. Every-down backs are a dying breed. With the second half of the first round being filled with an abundance of risky running back plays, ’09 mock trends suggest that many are opting to go with a top-notch WR. Running back is an injury prone position, and is now one of the easiest roster spots to fill. Current ADP listings have Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Randy Moss all making their way into the first round, with Megatron going in the early second. 80-plus receptions, 1,200-plus receiving yards, and double-digit TD’s sounds good to me.
Where and when you will draft your wideouts will depend on many things including your league’s scoring system, roster formation, and draft pattern. Exploration of all these components will give you an accurate indication of positional importance.
The stat that seems to have the most influence on player value is the reception. Pass receptions are scored differently from league to league. Awarded points can vary from 0, 0.33, 0.5, and 1 PPR (point per reception). A fantasy GM going into a draft in a point per reception league should have a totally different approach than a GM drafting in a league that does not award points per reception.
No other positions value seems to fluctuate more than the wideout-depending on what scoring format your league utilizes. A receiver’s value can not only jump spots, but can jump rounds depending on how valued receptions are. A wideout who catches 100 balls gets a whole 100 more points for your fantasy squad. That is a major stat leap and should show you how the PPR format can throw off your whole draft strategy. In PPR leagues, receivers become much more valuable and you need to adjust accordingly. Alterations not only need to be made in comparing positions, but also within the wideout position itself. In a PPR league a receiver like Wes Welker gets a stock bump, for although he might not lead the league in scoring, he can be counted on to reach the century mark in grabs and contend for the reception title.
Which route-runner goes first depends on what scoring format you’re in. Here’s a brief breakdown:
PPR: Johnson out scored Fitz in ’08, and should do so again in ’09.
Standard Format: Fitz is the man!
TD Only: With the return of Brady – Moss should once again outscore the competition.
Along the same lines, some leagues distribute points for return yards and touchdowns. For example: 1 point per 25 return yards and 6 points for return touchdowns. In such leagues wide receiver/return men like Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson have a much higher value. Read the fine print. If you hear of a wideout getting return duties – their stock should immediately rise. Many fantasy players are not tuned into the random rules such as this. In fantasy, ignorance isn’t bliss. Every point counts!
Roster formation can influence positional value. If you’re league roster starts 3 WR, the WR drought starts early and other positions can be put on the back-burner. But if your league roster starts only 2 WR, an early look at other positions can be afforded.
It has been drilled into fantasy culture: “don’t draft rookie receivers!”. The virgin seasons of Eddie Royal , DeSean Jackson, and even Donnie Avery have us questioning what has been thought to be fantasy law. The so called “3 year theory” has come into question. But buyer beware for there are still the James Hardy’s, the Limas Sweed’s and the Devin Thomas’ of the world. The “too small for the NFL”, speedsters, with the dual threat as return men were the ones who were making an impact in ’08. It is always important to remember – all rookie wideouts come with risk. Pay attention to camp battles and pre-season performances to see who is impressing their way into the starting lineup. Although I don’t agree with the “3 year theory”, rookie receivers often experience growing pains in their first year as professionals. Only a handful of pass catchers have made a rookie year splash. Could anyone from the ’09 class be one of them?
When it comes to Philosophy, forget about Socrates and Plato and start thinking about Reggie Wayne and Randy Moss. If you have an early pick in this years draft, it is difficult to pass on the few RB studs left in the game. That being said, if you’re fortunate enough to land Peterson, Jones-Drew, Forte, or Turner in the 1st, back-to-back WR picks in the 2cnd and 3rd is advised. The WR position is top-heavy but fades fast. RBBC saturation has lead to decent RB2 plays falling to the later rounds.
On the other hand, if you have a late first round pick – Fitz, Andre, Moss, and Calvin provide better options than the bottom-end RB1′s.
The Brotherhood is never afraid to go across the middle. Tune in tomorrow for Receiver Tiers, Wednesday for WR Ranks, Stats, and Write-ups, and Friday for Preseason Positional Superlatives. All are welcome to our Q&A Service – All questions are welcomed, All questions are answered, and it’s FREE!
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