Thomas Jones pieced together his best year as a pro and finished fifth among RBs in fantasy scoring last season. So what’s with his sudden stock drop heading into ‘09? I’ll tell you…
Jones improved from a measly 2 touchdown ‘07 campaign, exploding for 15 scores in ‘08. Drafting Jones on his last years numbers would be foolish. He’s heading into a contract year and held out of initial workouts in efforts to iron out something this season. Jones quickly saw that he had little bargaining power for the Jets had already drafted his replacement in Shonn Greene.
Shonn Greene is a power runner who can move a pile. He won the Doak Walker Award as College’s best back. He was an absolute beast in his senior season at Iowa rushing for 1,850 yards and 20 TDs. He should see immediate playing time and steal goal-line duties. In keeper leagues, Greene offers great dynasty potential for if the Jets chose to release Jones in 2010, he’ll be looking at the headlining role behind one of the best lines in football. He’s sure to be on my sleeper list come draft day. Greene offers little to nothing in the passing game, but Leon Washington will become more of a factor on 3rd down. Washington showed explosiveness with his opportunities last season and has looked absolutely ridiculous in pre-season play. The Jets will get creative in how they get the ball into his hands and even let him loose between the tackles on Monday night. He is New York’s most explosive weapon. Look for an expanded role in ‘09. In leagues that reward for return yards, Washington gets a tremendous stock bump, for he led the NFL in total yardage last season.
The Jets are in a transitional year as they get adjusted to a new head coach and rookie signal caller. Mark Sanchez will impress, but the receiving unit in young and unproven. Jerricho Cotchery is not a true number one receiver. David Clowney and Chansi Stuckey have showed promise, but are still projects in progress. Look for the Jets to identify themselves as a defensive-minded/run-first offense. Defenses will stack the box in efforts to force the rookie quarterback to beat them through the air. New York will rely heavily on their three headed monster, using all three backs in their best suited roles: Green at the goal-line, Washington on passing downs, leaving Tommy Jones with between the 20′s duties.
Lets do the math:
Jones’ ‘08 Stats: 1312 rushing yards, 13 rushing TDs, 36 receptions, 207 receiving yards, and 2 receiving TDs.
Now lets say Shonn Greene steals 125 carries for 500 or so yards and 8 scores. Add that to Leon Washington’s bigger piece of the pie and your looking at a significant down-grade in touches and touchdowns.
Trade rumors surrounding Jones have circled more than once, but new head coach Rex Ryan swears there will be no dealing. Brian Schottenheimer remains the offensive coordinator which could help Jones retain carries. He served well as a RB1 last season, but he looks be downgraded to RB3 status in ‘09.
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