Posted by Sean in Fantasy Advice on Jul 17th 2009 and last modified on Aug 24th 2009. (Print This)
This week the brokers from the Brotherhood focus on what stock options are available heading into the 09 season. Selling before the crash and buying on the cheap can lead to fantasy cash flow. We’ll provide free quotes and offer up-to-date stock analysis on today’s market trends. In Part I of this two edition piece, we’ll explore “Risers”, “Fallers”, and “Bargain Buys”. Tune in tomorrow for “Sell-High”, “Buy-Low”, “Liabilities” and “Insurance Policies” (Handcuffs). FFB is committed to making sure you get proper return on your fantasy investments.
Stock Rising
Jonathan Stewart – CAR – RB
Stewart is much more than an insurance policy and should prove to be a high-end RB3 play. He quietly scored 10 touchdowns last season and rebounded well from off season injury. Carolina will continue to rely heavily on the run, despite resigning Delhomme to a long term deal – BAD MOVE. The two headed monster split goal-line work last season, but Stewart’s smashing style (235lbs) is more tailor-made for the role. Double digit TD’s are once again in reach. DWill will not have a repeat of 08′s performance, and Stewart should cut a little more into his touches. Don’t expect much from him in the passing game, for he only had 8 receptions in all of 08.
Anthony Gonzalez – IND – WR
WARNING: Break Out Candidate! Gonzalez will step up with the departure of Marvin Harrison. The Colts stunted his maturation by throwing Harrison a pity-party in 08. The WR2 position in the Colts offense can be quite lucrative – just look at Wayne’s 04-07 totals.
Pierre Thomas – NOR – RB
After the release of Deuce McAllister by the New Orleans Saints, many thought that the team would continue to neglect their deficits on defense and draft a rookie runner with their first pick in 09. The Saints did the smart thing and selected the top defensive back in this years draft – Malcom Jenkins. New Orleans continued with this pattern throughout the draft, staying on the defensive side of the ball. This is good news for Pierre Thomas who’s end of the season hot streak will be allowed to continue into 09. 08 makes it two years in a row that Thomas has come up big down the stretch and made huge contributions for owners fighting for fantasy titles. Reggie Bush is a specialist, not a between the tackles runner. Pierre made the most of his opportunities last year and has solidified a potent role in the highest scoring offense in the NFL. Thomas showcased his versatility last season by earning tough ground in short-yardage situations, running between the tackles, displaying ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, and contributions in the return game. 08 TOTALS: 12TD’S, 1702 ALL PURPOSE YARDS, AVG: 4.8 YARDS PER CARRY. All this was done while truly only starting 6 games, and splitting time in a crowded backfield. Imagine what 09 could look like if he has an entire season of legitimate touches.
Chris Wells – ARI – RB
My pick for rookie of the year. Spread offense – can’t afford to stack the box – Watch out! Wells should quickly out-perform Tim Hightower. He’s a perfect fit for this offense. Double-digit touchdowns are in reach.
Miles Austin – DAL – WR
Austin has his eyes set on bigger things than just the WR2 spot in Dallas. While in an all out brawl to beat out Patrick Crayton for starting time, Austin has been quoted to setting his sites on the number one spot. Roy Will has done little to prove that he is deserving of the headlining role. WR1 may be a reach, but Austin should beat out Crayton for time. He needs to show that he is more than a deep threat, but could prove to be a great sleeper pick come draft day.
Mark Clayton – BAL – WR
Derrick Mason’s surprising retirement, immediately places Clayton in a more productive role. Flacco will miss his primary target. Someone will have to step up. Clayton and Demetrius Williams will most likely hold down starting roles.
First Round Wide Receivers: The First Round was once completely dominated by runners. Times have changed. The RBBC has over-saturated the position leaving few true workhorses. With the majority of teams moving to a time-share style of running the ball, the quantity of runners has sky-rocketed, but the quality has been compromised. Every-down backs are a dying breed. With the second half of the first round being filled with an abundance of risky running back plays, 09 mock trends suggest that many are opting to go with top-notch WR options. Running Back is an injury prone position, and is now one of the easiest roster spots to fill. Current ADP listings have Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, and Randy Moss all making their way into the first round, with Megatron going in the early second. 80-plus receptions, 1,200-plus receiving yards, and double-digit TD’s sounds good to me.
Stock Drops - Let someone else take the fall.
Brandon Marshall – DEN – WR
BIG mouth + Hurt Hip +Legal Problems + Possible Suspension + Trade Rumors + New Coach + New QB = Fantasy LIABILITY Stock is falling. Current ADP in early fourth. At what point is he worth the risk?
Willie Parker – PIT – RB
Fast Willie is slowing down, and Mendenhall is fast on his tail.
Patrick Crayton – DAL – WR
Poor Crayton… He gets no love. Another off-season leads to another battle for the un-proven receiver. Even with T.O. out of town, he finds his job to still be in question. This season his face off is with sleeper Miles Austin. My money is on Austin to win the number two job. I’m not a Roy Will fan, and would not be surprised if Austin made a run at number 1. Wait a minute… We all know that Witten is the true number one in Romo’s heart.
Torry Holt – JAC – WR
Mixed messages surround Holt coming into 09. Some say he’s due to bounce back. Others say he’s lost a step. People always seem to love the “comeback” story, but don’t get caught up in “once upon a time” come draft day.
Thomas Jones – NYJ – RB
Not clear on where T. Jones will fall. After an incredible 08, the Jets brought in Shonn Greene to compete. Keep an eye on camp to see how this back field settles.
Bargain Buys - High return on investment.
Cedric Benson – CIN – RB
Everyone, including myself, branded Benson with the “Bust” label. It might be too early to remove that title, but Benson should relieve him self of his scarlet letter this season. He’ll retain 1st and 2cnd downs, but Bernard Scott is a super sleeper who could surprise. Benson is a starting back who is getting no love. Current ADP has him going in the late 6th round.
Ray Rice – BAL – RB
McClain will still get goal-line looks, but Rice should start to phase McGahee out. He provides the receiving ability that the other Ravens runners lack, and is a guarantee to lock up third down responsibilities. Rice has been reported to have shown up to OTA’s sporting some extra muscle and thickness. He should prove that he is more than a third down back and show that he’s strong enough to carry between the tackles. He currently has been taking first team snaps in camp, and is reported to have impressed the coaching staff. Baltimore loves to run the rock and led the league in rushing attempts in 08. Joe Flacco is still a young quarterback, and continues to lack explosive receiving options especially after the loss of Derrick Mason to retirement. Look for Baltimore to continue to rely heavily on the run, and look for Ray Rice to be the higher recipient in a lop-sided time share with McGahee.
Shonn Greene – NYJ – RB
Thomas Jones is already having contract disputes, and will turn 32 next season. He is due for a pay increase, so look for the Jets to cut him lose after the season. Behind one of the best lines in football, Greene should make his way onto the field and find him self in short-yardage/goal-line situations in 09. The Jets will be a run-first offense behind rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez. Greene’s role should increase as the season progresses. He has the possibility to start by seasons end. Greene will be a household name come 2010. If you’re in a keeper league, he should be high on your radar. In current mocks, Greene is going in the 11th, but I’ll be looking to grab him a little sooner.
Mark Bradley – KAN – WR
Bradley should beat out Bobby Engram for the starting spot opposite Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs acquisition of Todd Haley should help improve their wide-out play. Bradley should be the main beneficiary of Haley’s arrival and Tony Gonzalez’s departure. Gonzo’s 1000-plus yards, 90-plus receptions, and double-digit TD’s have to fall to someone. Bradley is falling all the way to the 14th round ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…. Sleep.
Larry Johnson – KAN – RB
LJ has done well sporting a muzzle this off-season. His stock is as low as it’s ever been, but as far as we know, he’s still the Chief’s man on 1st and 2cnd downs. With improved quarterback play, along with the acquisition of Todd Haley – the Chiefs offense should improve and provide LJ with more scoring opportunities. Jamal Charles is circling for starting time. If Johnson shows any signs of his idiot self, Charles will get it.
Brent Celek – PHI – TE
With the departure of L.J. Smith to Baltimore, Celek steps up in the starters role. His 08 numbers do not reflect his impact, for during the Eagles playoff run, Celek totaled 19 receptions for 151 yards and 3 TD’s. McNabb has always done a good job of peppering around his targets. Celek is currently being drafted in the 14th round. He’s a sure bet to outproduce his draft position.
Sleeping is forbidden! Fantasy Football Brothers is a 24-hour Q&A service. The Brotherhood is a Blue Chip organization that offers personalized analysis in reference to your leagues scoring format. So let’s go rip some people off, sell before it crashes, buy before anyone knows about it, and insure ourselves of a fantasy title. WELCOME TO THE BROTHERHOOD. Got a trade offer that you’re not sure about? Torn between two similar players in this years draft? Hesitant to pull the trigger? Submit a question and we’ll pull the trigger for you. What are they gonna do – Charge us as accessories to a Fantasy Title? Make the cutthroat deals, draft the diamonds in the ruff, and get the brief case ready to collect some cash. Tune in tomorrow for Part II.
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