Rookie Wide Out Report

Posted by in Fantasy Advice on Jun 17th 2009 and last modified on Jun 20th 2009. (Print This)

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Michael Crabtree:

Crabtree is an elite talent who will gradually climb fantasy ranks in the years to come. Being drafted by San Francisco has its positives and negatives.
It has been drilled into fantasy culture: “don’t draft rookie receivers!”. The virgin seasons of Eddie Royal , Desean Jackson, and even Donnie Avery have us questioning what has been thought to be fantasy law. The so called “3 year learning curve” philosophy has come into question. But buyer beware for there are still the James Hardy’s, the Limas Sweed’s and the Devin Thomas’ of the world.
Unlike rookie running backs, rookie wide receivers appear to benefit from coming into a system where they are not the number one focal point of the passing attack. It has been said that the learning curve for wideouts is longer than that of runners. I don’t believe in the three year theory (look to article archive) but I do think the pro game is harder to pick up for wide outs. Rookie route runners usually benefit from other producers at the position to ease the pressure as they learn the pro game. In SanFran, Crabtree instantly becomes the focal point of the passing attack, with a supporting cast of Josh Morgan and Isaac Bruce. Morgan should mature as he rebounds from an injury plagued season. Bruce should provide Crabtree with some mentoring and guidance as a successful seasoned vet. The question is, are these players good enough to keep coverages honest and from rolling towards Crabtree? I’m gonna have to say No. The quarterback situation for the Niner’s is shaky. The battle between Shaun Hill and Alex Smith will play itself out in camp, but I don’t see either of them piecing together an above average fantasy season. With the addition of Crabtree and the strong running of Frank Gore, I believe that the SanFran offense will improve.  Crabtree definitely fits the bill for wide outs standing at 6-2, 215 lbs, but also has the pre-Madonna/super ego factor as well. Coach Singletary is a no nonsense type of guy, and should keep Crabtree in check. If Mike Martz was the coordinator I would be more excited, but Singletary is more of a conservative-minded coach who loves to run the ball.
Crabtree is currently being drafted in the early seventh round, where I think he should fall. His name alone carries weight, and he is most likely going to be drafted ahead of where he should. Overall, Crabtree is going to be a great NFL receiver. He can be a reception machine, but also has big play potential. Crabtree has great dynasty potential as he should mature into an elite receiver in the years to come. As for this year I’m thinking along the lines of 60-70 grabs, 800-900 yards, 5-6 touchdowns.

The Other Rookie Receivers:

The “too small for the NFL”, speedsters, with the dual threat as return men were the ones who were making a splash in 08. I look for Maclin and Harvin to produce for they have more versatility in the return game and potential in a “wildcat-like” style of offense.

Jeremy Maclin was projected as a top 10 talent, and was slotted to go to either the Oakland Raiders at 7 or the Jacksonville Jaguars at 8. Maclin was the number 2 wideout on the majority of draft boards, but still managed to fall to the Eagles at number 19. Maclin and DeSean Jackson provide the team with serious speed both on the offensive side of the ball and on special teams. Keep an eye on Eagles camp to see who will end up with return duties. If your league rewards for return yardage and touchdowns this player should get a bump in your ranks.

Percy Harvin’s knock coming into the draft was that he was not a “true wide out”. But that is what Minnesota was drawn to. Harvin’s experience returning kicks, running the ball, while still having the skill set to run accurate routes and good hands, provides you a player that can line up all over the field. I look for the Vikings to get creative on how they use Harvin, with specially designed plays to get the ball in his hands.

Hakeem Nicks was thought to be the patching up of the bullet hole left in the Giants offense by the departure of Plaxico Burress. But the wound appears to still be bleeding, and reports out of Giants camp is that Nicks is not a shoe in for the starting line up. Toomer is too old. Smith is more of a slot guy and Hixon is a number 2, not a 1. Keep a third eye on New York to see who solidifies themselves in the starting rotation.

I like the wide out trio of Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Justin Gage in Tennessee. Although the Titans are a run first offense, I expect the passing attack to improve. Kerry Collins is an underrated quarterback, and I believe that all three of the Titans receivers could out produce their draft position., but there are only a limited amount of targets to be spread around.

ZZZZZZzzzzzzzz Sleeper?

Juaquin Iglesias out of Oklahoma who was drafted by the Chicago Bears. Iglesias value comes more from where he was drafted than individual talent. The Bears are super thin at wide out, with Deven Hester currently topping the depth chart. Igesias may have a chance to step right into playing time. He is not afraid to go over the middle and has displayed toughness and good hands in his college years. You can let this guy sleep because most of your league has probably never heard of him, but he may be worth a late round flier, or early year waiver wire pick up.

I also like Brian Robiskie – the OSU boy, staying in state, playing for the Browns. Robiskie projects to be a solid possession receiver with good football intelligence. Many have categorized him as a low-ceiling, high-floor type guy, who has the opportunity to step right in and play with the legal concerns of Donte Stallworth. His speed is average, but his knowledge of the position and good work ethic is what makes him succeed.

Potential Bust:

Darrius Heyward-Bey. Speed, speed, speed. But Oakland is the Black Hole of Talent. Jamarcus Russell is on the fast track to Bust status. Bey should be able to stretch the field, giving Russell a deep threat, and providing the Raiders backfield with a little more runner room. Oakland can’t help but improve from last year, but other than McFadden and Zack Miller, no other Raiders will be on my board. Side note: Al Davis is a disgrace to football.

Top 10 Rookie Ranks:

1) Michael Crabtree, 2) Percy Harvin, 3) Jeremy Maclin, 4)Brian Robiskie, 5) Hakeem Nicks, 6) Kenny Britt, 7) Darius Heyward-Bey, 8) Juaquin Iglesias, 9) Pat White , 10) Deon Butler.

Disclaimer: Remember – all rookie wide outs come with risk. Pay attention to camp battles and pre-season performances to see who is impressing their way into the starting lineup. Although I don’t agree with the “3 year theory”,  rookie receivers often experience growing pains in their first year as pro’s. Only a handful of pass catchers have made rookie year splashes. Could anyone from the 09 class be one of them? Stay tuned to FFB as we finalize player rankings in preparation for our FREE DRAFT KIT.

Article inspired by question submitted by Steven. Keep the questions coming! It’s all good in the Brotherhood!

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