Posted by Sean in Fantasy Advice on Jun 29th 2009 and last modified on Jul 3rd 2009. (Print This)
The noose has been tied… The court yard is full. After two seasons of unmet expectations, his once loyal servants are ready to be done with their fallen king of fantasy nation. I’ve seen Tomlinson’s name on both “Bust” and “Sleeper” lists heading into the 09 season. Given his recent struggles, most are inclined to put him on the “Bust” list. But lets not be so fast to behead our former King.
Many frustrated owners who have drafted LDT #1 the last two years are ready to throw in the towel, but I am not. In 2008, LDT finished 5th overall in fantasy points scored by a running back (standard scoring formats) – outscoring the likes of MJD, Steve Slaton, Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Marion Barber, Brandon Jacobs, Brian Westbrook, and Clinton Portis – And we’re all over the guy. A let down? For him – Yeah! For the overall number one pick? – Yeah! For the Super Man of 06? – Yeah. But a top five finish is a top five finish. Legendary seasons lead to legendary expectations.2006 was three years ago. Lets get over it!
LDT turns the feared 30 years this season. The lifetime of an NFL running back is a short one that can often end abruptly. But LaDainian is not Shaun Alexander. Aging runners often benefit from a time share as their career lengthens. Darren Sproles is too good to keep off the field, and should spell LDT in games, providing him with much needed rest, and making him less injury prone. Tomlinson is said to have reported to workouts in excellent condition and looks to be completely recovered from last years nicks and dings. Coach Norv Turner has been noted to say that LDT is in order for 320 carries this season. That may be a reach, but even if the number of carries go down, the quality of those carries should go up. The bottom line is - an every down back is a dying species in the NFL, and LDT is exactly that. This could be his last year in a Charger uniform and he may be applying for a new job in 2010. Look for him to be highly motivated this season, as he attempts to add to his already illustrious resume.
Tomlinson’s current ADP is around the seventh selection, but I wouldn’t take him that high. Our latest running back ranks, have him battling with DeAngelo Williams for 8thspot. In some recent mock drafts, Tomlinson has been falling to the late first/early second round. I can’t see him falling out of the first, but having LDT as your RB2 would be ridiculous. The end of the first and early second round appears to be filled with risky picks. I would not take LDT over young/high ceiling talents such as Chris Johnson, or Steve Slaton, but he appears to be the lesser of many evils and should get the nod over Brian Westbrook, Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs, Frank Gore, and Marion Barber who are all liabilities in their own right. The player we saw in 06 is gone, but a bounce back from 08 is in order. Depending on where he falls in your draft, LDT could be a perfect “buy low” candidate. LaDainian will not retake the throne this season, but if the rumors coming out of Chargers camp hold any truth, he could lead one hell of a rebellion.
“THEY MAY TAKE OUR WIVES, BUT THEY MAY NEVER TAKE AWAY OUR FANTASY FOOTBALL.”
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