Posted by Rob in Fantasy Advice on May 26th 2009 and last modified on May 27th 2009. (Print This)
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The third year wide receiver theory is the closest thing to an exact science that states a wide receiver will break out their third year in the NFL. Whatever the reason it may be, whether it is a receiver who is finally comfortable in the offense and understands how to run routes, or if it us just an adjustment period to the NFL game and lifestyle, it is a phenomenon that has perplexed many experts.
The point of this article is to tell you that it is B.S.! Anyone who spouts the third year wide receiver theory at your draft wants you to take a chance on a mediocre talent that has yet to break out and probably never will. The fact is that most wide receivers break out because they have talent to begin with, it could take them one, two, three, even five years before their breakout season. There are countless examples of each, it’s just that the third year receiver gets magnified by so called fantasy football experts. So without further ado, lets take a look some wide outs entering their third season.
1.) Calvin Johnson(DET)-Already broke out and soon to be a superstar in Motown, the rookie hype was unfair, people questioned the selection as Johnson was playing with a bad back. This guy is the real deal and will only help the evolution of Matthew Stafford.
2.) Dwayne Bowe(KCC)-Already broke out and soon to be a top 10 wide receiver, though losing Tony Gonzalez hurts, Bowe gets an upgrade with Matt Cassel at quarterback. A guy once told me to take Robert Meacham over Bowe in their rookie year in 2007, glad I didn’t listen since this guy now works at Sears selling power tools.
3.) Steve Breaston(ARI)-A Fantasy Football Brothers sleeper last year he produced big (77 rec., 1006 yds, 3 TD’s), You have got to love the offense he plays in, if Anquan Boldin goes elsewhere, these numbers will be duplicated or could rise. If Boldin does stay a similar output number wise will be expected, not bad numbers for a 3rd receiver in what other wise is a poor fantasy year at the wide reciever spot.
4.) Anthony Gonzalez(IND)-Gonzalez should elevate into the upper tier of wide receivers this year, he has been solid as a pro, but this is the year he becomes a household name on draft day. Does this fit the third year wide receiver breakout theory?, or does it fall under the “How does a Hall of Famer to be, who is a starting WR and probably shouldn’t be carrying a handgun, then dump the gun at their own car wash after they try and cap someone.” theory?
5.) Ted Ginn Jr.(MIA)-Just when I thought at the beginning of last year, what in the hell were the Dolphins doing drafting this guy 9th overall in the 2007 draft, had Al Davis purchased the ‘Fins, he goes out and puts together a decent year(56 rec., 790 yds, 2 TD’s). His value will be limited by Chad Pennington’s popgun arm as his game is deep speed, but I’ve been wrong before.
6.) Steve Smith(NYG)-Smith had 57 receptions last year and amassed 574 yards. That my friends is about a 10.1 average yard per catch, which to me tells me he has little yards after the catch, or he has become a possession receiver. Either way they drafted Hakeem Nicks for a reason.
7.) James Jones(GBP)-I love James Jones, I think he is one of the most talented wide receivers in this class whose talent is untapped due to being blocked by other receivers that are immensely talented. If Jones gets the chance, he will shine, whether that is in Green Bay or somewhere else I do not know.
8.) Jason Hill(SFF)-Hill did hold value until the 49ers went and drafted uber rookie Michael Crabtree. If the 49ers can find a way to get Hill’s speed on the field and get him the ball he could be a break out candidate, but remember fantasy owners, Mike Martz is not walking through that door.
9.) Sidney Rice(MIN)-Rice was bit by the injury bug last year(PCL sprain) so his numbers for 2008 (33 rec., 438 rec. yds., 3 TD’s) could also read (50 rec., 650 rec. yds., and 5 TD’s) if he were healthy. The fact is the Vikings drafted Percy Harvin, which could either help or hurt Rice’s value, the same could be said about a retired quarterback on the comeback trail.
10.) Robert Meacham(NOS)-I already mentioned Meacham earlier, he is a bust, often in Sean Payton’s doghouse for his lack of work ethic, he has all the talent and the speed and size one could ask for in a receiver. If he had the heart of Wayne Chrebet and the work ethic of Jerry Rice, he would be Jerry Rice.
This list could be a lot longer, these are just some of the more notable third year wide receivers this year and when I end the list with Robert Meacham, I do not want to waste your time. Be on the lookout for our free draft kit which is on the way, and as always please take advantage of our question and answer portion of our site, as we are here to help you win a fantasy championship.