Posted by Rob in Fantasy Advice on May 18th 2009 and last modified on Dec 13th 2010. (Print This)
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“In case most of you haven’t noticed, and judging by the attendance you haven’t”–Harry Doyle in Major League, there is a changing of the guard going on in the NFL, a renaissance period, an era of enlightenment. The young bucks are taking over from the vets, and no longer is the top of the draft , or the first round for that matter etched in stone. Just when we thought we had it all figured out, with heated arguments about the top five backs (Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, and Larry Johnson), the fantasy gods threw us a Joey Harrington knuckle ball to the groin.
The NFL is going the way of ultra fast backs who possess skills across the board, they can run, catch, and block, a triple threat of sorts. While they may not be earth movers and get 25 to 30 touches a game, these guys need only 15 to 20 touches to make an impact. Every year there is a running back in noticeable decline, Shaun Alexander and Rudi Johnson come to mind, soon to be followed by Tomlinson, Westbrook, and L. Johnson, but the cupboard has been restocked for years to come with the 2008 rookie running back class. The shelf life for a running back is about four to five years of solid production, that’s why guys like Walter Payton, Barry Sanders, Eric Dickerson, and Emmitt Smith were so unique and special. NFL teams are aware that with lesser carries equals lesser punishment, therefore the conception of the dreaded running back by committee (RBBC) was spawned. NFL teams can now extend the average shelf life of a running back out to six to eight years of solid production. Does this make a “workhorse” back more valuable in your draft is an argument I hear every year and the answer is a resounding “NO!”
The 2008 rookie running back class was full of speedsters that are in RBBC’s with the exception of Matt Forte in Chicago and Kevin Smith in Detroit. While you have your 2008 rookie runners who have already blossomed into superstars such as Forte (1238 ru. yds., 8 TD’s), Steve Slaton (1282 ru. yds., 9 TD’s), and Chris Johnson (1228 ru yds., 9TD’s), one shouldn’t forget that the aforementioned Smith (976 ru yds., 8 TD’s), Darren McFadden (499 ru yds., 4 TD’s) and Jonathan Stewart (836 ru yds., 10 TD’s) aren’t far behind. Still the list goes on with Tim Hightower (399 ru yds., 10 TD’s), Ray Rice (454 ru yds.), Jamaal Charles (357 ru yds.), and Tashard Choice (472 ru yds., 2 TD’s). This goes wihout even mentioning guys who haven’t even scratched the surface of their potential due to the injury bug last year and you could certainly throw McFadden in this mix as well as he battled multiple injuries. Felix Jones flashed his skills before going down with season ending injuries, and Rashard Mendenhall was lost for the season also due to a fractured shoulder. Ryan Torain and Peyton Hillis were both productive when healthy, but they need to stay out of the Broncos infirmary to make an impact.
The 2008 rookie running back class was a once in a lifetime group, guys who exceeded expectations and gave the NFL a new look. Adrian Peterson is still the front runner without a question in any draft, and don’t look for him to pass the baton any time soon. Does the 2009 rookie running back class have a chance to compete with the 2008 class, not a chance. Funny, people said the same thing last year.