Posted by Sean in Fantasy Advice on Apr 23rd 2009 (Print This)
On Saturday we will all be sitting down to see who the future of our hometown franchise will be. But for those whom are addicted to Fantasy Football we will have an ulterior motive. As Fantasy GM’s we will all be waiting to see where the premier talent of this years draft land, and in turn how that will effect the fantasy game. As fantasy fans there are “Dream” situations for players to fall into, and “Nightmare” scenarios that would just lead to more fantasy confusion. Here is a quick look of where some of the elite skill position players could be drafted, and how that effects their fantasy value in 09.
RUNNING BACKS
The Running Back by Committee has taken over the NFL and in turn, has forced Fantasy Owners to take a different perspective on the position. Though the RBBC infection has contributed to the near extinction of the true all around 4 down work horse, it has super-saturated the position with multiple contributors from each team. Looking forward at the 09 fantasy season, it looks like the running back position could be one of the easier positions to fill. Looking at rosters across the league, not many teams are in dire need of a runner – causing this years crop of backs to potentially fall to late first round picks. Here are some “Dream” and “Nightmare” possibilities.
Nightmare:
Beanie Wells to New Orleans
Reports keep arising that the Saints are in line to take the Buckeye with the 14th pick overall. What does Pierre Thomas have to do to get some respect? Where is the love? The love is right here. Fantasy Brothers is high on Pierre Thomas this year. The Brotherhood’s pre-draft rankings has Thomas high on the list, but his role could drastically change if the Saints continue to neglect the defensive side of the ball and gamble on Wells. Wells has had durability issues and has had his competitiveness come into question. As fantasy players, Wells landing in New Orleans obviously depreciates that value of both Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, but could also impact Drew Brees and his wide-outs as the Saints could rely more heavily on the run especially in the red zone.
Dream:
Beanie Wells to Browns
The Browns strength is in its offensive line. Jamal Lewis, although still productive, is aging, and would provide Wells with a good mentor coming into the league. Wells and Lewis are both bigger backs that have a surprising combination of speed and power. Wells could learn from the veteran, and should be the higher attempts holder in a productive time-share.
Nightmare:
Knowshon Moreno to the Chargers
Knowshon looks to be a complete back. He can run between the tackles and can take the corner. He can catch the ball out of the back-field and can pick up the blitz. What I don’t see him doing well, is sharing the rock with LDT, and Darren Sproles. The Bolts drafting Moreno would all but solidify this season as being LDT’s last season in a Charger uniform. The move could pay off for fantasy owner in keeper leagues from 2010 on, but for immediate satisfaction, I would rather see Moreno land somewhere else. This is one of those dreams that starts off as a nightmare, but if you hang in there and let the dream play out – it could have a happy ending for those with patience/long term vision.
Dream:
Knowshon Moreno to the Patriots
New England has gotten by year in and year out with a quiet time share at running back. The latest collaboration was last years collective carrying between Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, LaMont Jordan, Ben Jarvis-Green Ellis, and Lawrence Maroney(Bust- Hate him!). In terms of a work-horse runner in New England, you would have to go back to Corey Dillon, and before that Curtis Martin. Knowshown Moreno is the most complete back in this years draft. Could he last until the 23rd pick? The rest of the league better hope not. New England has greater needs at other positions, but the possibility of acquiring Moreno will have those in the Patriots front office with quite a decision to make. For me it’s a no brainer- DRAFT HIM! But in reality Moreno should not fall this far. If the Pats do have to trade up to get him, given the super-saturation in back fields around the league, New England may not have to trade too far up to obtain him. With the array of picks in this years draft, the Patriots could piece together some sort of deal come to land the former Georgia Bulldog.
Dream:
LeSean McCoy or Donald Brown to Zona
James has lost his Edge, and Tim Hightower is a contributor, not the answer. The Cards air attack was a-top the league, but the ground game was dead to last. The Cards most likely go with a runner with the 31st pick overall. With J.J. Arrington leaving to join the stable out in Denver, the Cards are in need of a runner who not only can run in-between the tackles, but can also stay in on third down. McCoy and Brown are both threats in the passing game, and have potential to take on a considerable workload for what ever team they fall to. Out of the two I think Brown could be the steal of this years draft. If the Patriots do not trade up for Moreno, look for them to select Brown at 23 or hold off and hope to land him at 34.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Unlike rookie runners, rookie wide receivers appear to benefit from coming into a system where they are not the focal point of the passing attack. It has been said that the learning curve for wideouts is longer than that of runners. Rookie route runners usually benefit from other producers at the position to ease the pressure as they learn the pro game. Call me crazy, but Cincy appears to be the better landing spot for any of the top prospects coming out in the draft this year.
Dream:
Call me crazy, but Michael Crabtree could benefit from playing opposite Ocho-Cinco, and a healthy Carson Palmer could have Cincy picking themselves off the floor of the league. Cincy’s offense is used to housing multiple talents at the Wide-Out position. Providing Ocho with a new play-pal could help in his recovery from mourning the loss of his BFF to Seattle. Ocho’s time in Cincy appears to be limited. Crabtree could learn from one of the best. As Crabtree matures, the Bengals can feel more comfortable granting Chad Johnson’s wishes of getting out of Cincy next season. Could this chemistry experiment of egos back-fire on the Bengals? -ABSOLUTELY! But we all enjoy watching a good train wreck from time to time, as long as no one gets seriously hurt, and our players still put up solid fantasy numbers.
Nightmares:
Both Jacksonville and Oakland have a more desperate need at Wide-Out, but both teams are run-first offenses. The Jags and Raiders lack any true producers at the position, leaving rookie Wide-Outs with little guidance and a weak supporting cast . Both Oakland and Jacksonville have questions at quarterback, and appear once again to be “buyer beware” in 09 in respects to the Wide-Out position.
Update:
The Jags signing of Torry Holt to a three year deal brings veteran leadership, and well needed talent to the receiving corps. Holts singing in no way alleviates the Jags need to bolster the position in the draft. Aging talents with veteran experience often find purpose in mentoring/training “the next generation”. A three year deal surprised me, but in acquiring Holt, the Jags not only get a player with something left in the tank, but also a wide receiver coach to assist in bringing up the youngsters. Verdict: Jacksonville still scary, but could possibly be worth staying asleep to see how it turns out.
Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin, and Darius Heyward-Bey are all potential players that could land in Jacksonville and Oakland. If I were any of these players, I would be crossing my fingers hoping I don’t fall into the “Black Hole”.
TIGHT ENDS
Brandon Pettigrew to Atlanta or New England
New England has higher needs at many other positions, but seeing Tom Brady’s arsenal enhanced with the addition of freakish Pettigrew would only heighten the fear of those teams whom found their names on the 09 Super Bowl bound Patriots schedule.
Matt Ryan surprised all in his rookie campaign. Adding Pettigrew not only offers him a great check-down/middle of the field option, but also insures his protection as a blocker.